Colombia’s southwest is in focus as dozens of attacks by rebel groups have intensified security worries only weeks before voters head to the polls on May 31 to choose the country’s next president, according to Colombia’s defense ministry and analysts.
The ministry said rebel groups staged 26 attacks with explosives and drones since Friday, including a blast Saturday on a highway linking the cities of Cali and Popayan that killed people near the Pan-American Highway, close to a tunnel. The death toll from that explosion rose to 21 by Monday, according to the defense ministry.
Government officials and regional analysts described the renewed violence as part of a longer struggle in areas where illegal armed actors compete to control territory for illicit economies. They cited the strategic value of the southwest for activities including illegal mining, drug trafficking and the cultivation of coca leaf, the raw material used to produce cocaine.
Authorities blamed the FARC-EMC for the blast and other attacks. The group is led by Nestor Vera, known as Iván Mordisco, a former FARC member who refused to join the 2016 peace deal between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the government.
Sergio Guzmán, a political risk analyst in Bogotá, said the attacks could be aimed at showing the group’s ability to cause serious harm and at positioning itself for future talks. He said the goal was to “establish its credibility” with the next government and added, “Part of what they are doing is establishing leverage towards the future.”
The violence also fed into debates over President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” strategy, which has sought negotiations with Colombia’s remaining rebel groups. Under Petro, who himself is a former guerrilla, the government has offered ceasefires as part of efforts to bring armed groups to talks, but analysts said the ceasefires gave groups a chance to regroup, rearm and strengthen control over communities.
Javier Garay, a political science professor at Colombia’s Externado University, said that approach was misguided, adding, “The government’s peace policy has been naïve.” Elizabeth Dickinson, a Colombia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Mordisco’s group is particularly strong in Cauca and Valle del Cauca, where it fights for control over drug trafficking routes and illegal gold mines.
Dickinson also described how the group has used drones and car bombs to respond to an offensive by Colombia’s military in the Micay Canyon, a remote area covered with coca fields that is under the group’s grip. She said the latest attacks in southwest Colombia were one way to show it could sustain an “asymmetrical war” against the government.
In public remarks, Petro and security officials tied the campaign to broader concerns about crime and drugs as the election approaches. Colombia’s defense minister said on Sunday that kidnappings and lockdowns enforced by rebel groups in Cauca had decreased over the past year because of the government’s actions. In a nationally televised address Monday night, Petro said his government had fought drug trafficking and slowed coca cultivation, saying 258,000 hectares were planted with coca in late 2025.
As the election nears, opposition candidates have argued the security deterioration undermines “total peace,” and they say they will take a tougher stance on crime. Petro is barred by Colombia’s constitution from running again, but his party’s candidate, Iván Cepeda, has promised to continue peace talks with rebel groups. Cepeda rejected the recent attacks in southwest Colombia on X and urged authorities to investigate whether they were intended to interfere with the election, and Petro echoed that request on Monday night.
Petro asked security forces to investigate whether the explosives used in Saturday’s attacks came from Ecuador, which he said has started a trade war with Colombia over security issues along their border. “They want to sabotage our elections so that the extreme right wins,” Petro said on television, adding, “They are scared,” while not specifying who might be behind the alleged sabotage.
Colombian voters will choose among 14 presidential candidates, including Cepeda and conservatives Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Guzmán said both sides of the political debate will seek to benefit from the wave of violence, saying government supporters will argue it shows why urgent agreements are needed with rebel groups while detractors will say it is proof that the groups should be confronted more aggressively.