Trump threats against Iran have become a steady source of new bets on online prediction markets, where traders wager on what a U.S. president will do next—often turning uncertain rhetoric into tradable odds. The Associated Press reported that, while no one can know the answers to such questions, prediction-market platforms have profited from the uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s next move or next social media post. The report said the activity has extended to multiple platforms tied to Trump’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., including Polymarket and Kalshi.
The AP reported that prediction markets make money by offering wagers that change as current events do, requiring operators to build new lines frequently. In that environment, Trump’s unpredictability can translate into volume as users place bets on competing scenarios. The AP said that a Virginia Tech economist, Kwok Ping Tsang, described Trump’s appeal to market participants as his volatility, saying, “Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible,” and adding that “He’s so unpredictable.”
One example cited by AP came from Polymarket, where a wagering event on whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran drew nearly 100,000 bets by April 8, the report said. AP also described additional Trump-driven bets beyond the war itself, including questions such as who Trump would back to run Venezuela, whether his insults of Pope Leo XIV would continue, and whether he would seize Greenland.
The report tied a portion of the spike to Trump’s April 5 Truth Social post demanding the country “Open the F—- Strait,” saying it helped drive trading volume tied to the Iran war. It said Dune analytics found that “Yes” or “No” wagers on whether an invasion was imminent surged, and it also pointed to a follow-on market: on April 7, AP said Polymarket activity rose after Trump posted ominously that a “whole civilization will die tonight.” AP reported that Dune called Trump an “unpredictability machine,” and said his “governing-by-tweet” style sent trading volumes soaring.
Across the period from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday, April 8, AP reported that Dune estimated 413 million bets on the Iran war, with bettors risking more than $100 million. AP said it was on the day after Trump announced a ceasefire that one of the markets—“Will there be a ceasefire?”—surpassed earlier activity, according to Dune.
AP also reported that criticism of prediction markets has focused on whether the venues can function like systems for insider trading, while describing that the industry has continued to expand amid a relatively light regulatory approach. The report said Trump’s administration sued states seeking to ban prediction markets under no-gambling laws, and that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s head promoted the business publicly, describing the online bets in a Wall Street Journal op-ed as “exciting products.”
Polymarket, AP said, benefited particularly from earlier setbacks. It said Polymarket was banned from operating anywhere in the U.S. in 2022 after the Biden administration fined it for running an unregistered exchange, but that it later received permission to return and its value rose. AP reported that PitchBook research valued the company at $9.6 billion, and said the figure reflects nearly a tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested. The report said it was unclear how much Trump Jr. was profiting in a direct ownership sense because Polymarket is private and does not release ownership stakes, and Kalshi is also private.
When asked about whether Trump Jr. should profit from a business connected to his father’s actions, AP reported that a Trump Jr. spokesman responded that the question amounted to “fact-free Democratic propaganda.” The spokesman, Andrew Surabian, told AP: “Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets.” AP said Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
AP also noted that critics in Congress, virtually all Democrats, have accused Trump Jr. of profiting amid turmoil and said some are waiting for midterms to do something about it, including possibly voting for impeachment. The report framed the political question as one more tradable bet: in Polymarket trading, bettors initially put impeachment odds at 13% at the start of the year, AP reported, and then said that after Trump’s “civilization wipe out” threat and calls from Democrats to oust him, the odds had risen to 66% by Tuesday.
Other potential profit avenues mentioned by AP included Trump Jr.’s venture capital investments in aerospace, defense and technology firms that seek contracts from the Pentagon and other federal agencies. The report also said Trump Jr. and his brother Eric struck a deal giving them stakes in a military drone maker, including sales beyond U.S. forces and pitching to Gulf countries under Iranian attack, according to AP; it said Eric Trump responded in a statement that, “I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in.”