Virginia referendum on redistricting could shift House control this fall

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Virginia holds a statewide special election Tuesday that has no candidates on the ballot, but a single constitutional question could help shape which party wins control of the U.S. House in November. The ballot measure would allow Virginia’s Democratic-majority General Assembly to temporarily redraw the state’s congressional districts, putting its impact directly into the midterm elections that determine the House’s partisan control for the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term.

The referendum is part of a redistricting fight that Democrats describe as reactive and Republicans describe as necessary. The Associated Press said the escalating arms race began in July 2025, when Texas Republican lawmakers redrew their state’s congressional map to favor Republicans at President Donald Trump’s urging, according to the AP decision notes ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

Under the Virginia proposal, the state would use newly drawn boundaries for the upcoming November elections, and Democrats say that could produce significant seat gains. The decision notes say Democrats hold six of Virginia’s 11 congressional seats, but that if the February plan passed by the legislature and signed by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger is enacted, Democrats could gain the upper hand in 10 districts—an overall net pickup of four seats.

The AP decision notes outline the timeline in the measure’s design. It says lawmakers would retain the power to redraw district boundaries until October 2030, after which authority would revert to Virginia’s nonpartisan redistricting commission, which would create new maps for the 2032 election after the census. The measure, then, is intended to bridge a period between regular redistricting cycles.

High-profile Democrats have endorsed the ballot question, including Spanberger and former President Barack Obama, the AP said. It also said groups opposed to the measure have prominently featured the two in campaign materials alongside past quotes criticizing gerrymandering, and it listed former Republican Govs. Glenn Youngkin and George Allen as opponents.

The decision notes also describe how support and opposition may differ across the state’s political geography. It said supporters of the proposed constitutional amendment have far outraised those opposing it, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, and it added that voters can be less party-loyal in state elections even though Democrats have won Virginia in the past five presidential elections.

According to the AP, Fairfax County would be a key place to watch because it votes heavily Democratic and is the state’s most populous county, but it has shown competitive results in some Republican races. The decision notes said that in 2021, Youngkin and then-attorney general candidate Jason Miyares received about 35% of the vote in Fairfax and won their races; it compared that with Trump’s performance in presidential elections there, including about 31% in 2024. The notes also said Winsome Earle-Sears received about 26% in her unsuccessful 2025 gubernatorial bid.

The AP said other jurisdictions likely to matter include Chesterfield and Stafford counties and the cities of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake. It said Spanberger and Democratic presidential nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried all four areas in their statewide victories, but Youngkin swept the four in 2021, and it described majority “No” votes in any of these areas as a potential indicator of a very close statewide race.

As the votes are tallied, the Associated Press said it will declare winners only when it is determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing side to close the gap. It added that if a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover developments such as concessions or declarations of victory and will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

The AP decision notes also set out Virginia’s ballot and election rules for the referendum. It said polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and that any voter registered in Virginia can cast a ballot with eligible voters also able to register on Election Day. The notes said there were 6,386,877 registered voters as of March 1, that Virginia voters do not register by party, and that about 3.4 million votes were cast in the 2025 general election for governor—about 54% of registered voters at the time.

The decision notes further said about 43% of the 2025 gubernatorial vote was cast early or by absentee ballot, and that as of Monday about 1.4 million ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election—about 93% of total advance votes cast in the 2025 gubernatorial election, with in-person early voting concluding on Saturday. It said counties and independent cities vary in when they release results from early and absentee voting, with less than a third releasing most early and absentee results in the first vote update and nearly half releasing none in the first update.

Finally, the AP described the recount rules for ballot questions. It said Virginia does not conduct automatic recounts, and that a group of 50 or more voters may request and pay for a recount if the vote margin is 1 percentage point or less; the government would pay for the recount if the margin is less than 0.5 percentage points or if the recount changes the outcome.

The ballot measure itself appears as the only statewide contest on Tuesday’s ballot. The AP decision notes quoted it as: “Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?” It said a “yes” vote would allow the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts ahead of the midterms, while a “no” vote would leave the current boundaries unchanged until the next regularly scheduled redistricting after the 2030 census.