Even with the world’s most critical oil transit route reopened, structural obstacles—damaged refineries, traffic congestion from over 150 anchored tankers, lingering security concerns, and the weeks-long journey from Persian Gulf to American refineries—will extend the timeline for meaningful price declines. Full normalization could take until later this year or into 2027.
President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister announced Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial vessels after nearly seven weeks of war, sending oil prices down 10% and stock markets rallying. But motorists hoping for relief at the pump will face a waiting game measured in weeks and months.
Gasoline averaged $4.08 per gallon on Friday, up 37% from levels before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Energy experts cautioned that the lag between falling crude prices and retail pump prices reflects fundamental constraints in the global supply chain — not market psychology, but physics and infrastructure.
The Time Lag
“The historical observation is that gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly, regardless of the particular causes of the increase,” said Mark Barteau, a professor in the department of chemical engineering at Texas A&M University. The explanation lies in the time required for multiple steps: tanker voyages that take weeks, refinery ramp-ups that require days, and product distribution that demands additional days more.
Oil prices fell $10 to $12 per barrel on the announcement, translating to a decrease of roughly 25 to 30 cents per gallon at the pump, according to Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation. “That doesn’t happen overnight, but within a week or two, we could be down 50 cents a gallon easily, if this holds,” Lynch said.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, projected the national average could reach $3.45 to $3.65 by Memorial Day, a decline of roughly 40 to 60 cents from Friday’s price. He predicted “every state will start seeing gas price decreases accelerate at a pace of probably 1 to 3 cents a gallon for every day or two.”
“It might take until later this year or early next year to really fully normalize and for some of these surcharges and impacts to reverse and disappear,” De Haan said.
Structural Constraints
The reopening of the strait addresses the most acute bottleneck, but several obstacles will slow the return to normal energy markets.
More than 150 tankers have been anchored in and around the Strait of Hormuz during the blockade, creating a traffic jam. Mines placed during the conflict will need to be removed or detonated. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated, raising shipping costs.
Richard Joswick, global head of near-term oil analysis at S&P Global Energy, traced the full supply cycle: “If you open the strait today to get a ship and bring it around and take it to Europe and run a refinery, turn it into products, you’re talking 10 weeks of a lag time here. It will be two to three months before things can start to get back to normal after the strait re-opens.”
Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, offered a similar timeline: “If an agreement to end the war is reached, it could take at least four months for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to go back to normal.”
Damaged Refineries and Restarting Wells
Many oil production facilities in the Middle East sustained damage during the war, including refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and tanker terminals in the United Arab Emirates and Iran.
Additionally, some producers halted or slowed output during the conflict because they could not ship crude through the blocked strait, allowing storage tanks to fill. Restarting those wells after extended shutdowns requires careful management to avoid damaging the underground pressure systems that drive production.
Michael Lynch noted that Saudi Arabia has demonstrated the capacity to ramp production by 2 to 3 million barrels per day “almost overnight” from long shutdowns without damaging wells. But the broader recovery — across multiple fields and producers in the region — will be uneven.
De Haan captured the tension between market impatience and supply reality: “It’s not a light switch. Everyone’s impatient and saying, ‘Go, go go.’ But it will take time to get these flows of oil through the Middle East fired back up again.”