The falling-out marks a stark reversal for a European leader once regarded as Washington’s closest partner on the continent, and adds Italy to a list of U.S. allies that have declined to support the Iran war—a conflict analysts say is driving the diplomatic distances now opening between Trump and European governments.

U.S. President Donald Trump publicly broke with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni this week, saying their bond had frayed after she declined to back the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and called his attack on Pope Leo XIV “unacceptable.” Analysts said the rupture could benefit Meloni at home, where rising energy costs tied to the war have strained her government and Trump has grown broadly unpopular across Europe.

Trump’s criticism was sharpest in an interview with the leading Italian daily Corriere della Sera, published Wednesday. Asked about Meloni, Trump said, “I thought she had courage. I was wrong.”

He repeated the criticism on Fox News, saying, “She’s been negative,” and adding, “Anybody that turned us down to helping with this Iran situation, we do not have the same relationship.” When asked whether he and Meloni had spoken this month, Trump told Corriere, “No, not in a long time.”

Meloni had not directly responded to Trump’s attacks as of Wednesday, according to the Associated Press.

A fraying alliance

The break marks a reversal for a European leader whom Trump had treated as one of his closest partners on the continent. Meloni was the only European Union leader invited to Trump’s second inauguration, 15 months ago, and the two shared positions on nationalism and immigration. Italy was not spared Trump’s tariffs, and the distance grew further over the Iran war.

Italy refused U.S. bombers authorization to land at an air base in Sicily last month. On Tuesday, Meloni announced Italy would not automatically renew a defense agreement with Israel, after warning shots struck an Italian convoy operating as part of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon. And this week Meloni called Trump’s attack on Pope Leo XIV “unacceptable” — the most direct criticism of the U.S. president she had yet made publicly, according to the AP.

Analysts see domestic upside for Meloni

Nathalie Tocci, a professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe and director of the International Affairs Institute, said the conflict could work to Meloni’s advantage.

“I actually think this is a godsend for her,” Tocci said. “Trump has become completely toxic across Europe, across much of the world, including Italy.”

Tocci attributed the growing distance less to a deliberate shift by Meloni than to Trump’s own conduct. “It’s been building up over time, not so much because she is moving away from him but because he has become increasingly unhinged,” she said.

Mariangela Zappia, president of the ISPI think tank and a former Italian ambassador to the United States, said Trump’s reaction appeared rooted in frustration with Europe broadly, not Italy alone. Trump lost another European ally this past weekend with the electoral defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

Still, Zappia said Trump’s personal criticism of Meloni should not be read as a rupture in the broader bilateral relationship. “Europe absolutely considers the United States its historic ally, but in some way wants to be involved in the decisions that are taken,” she said.

Adolfo Urso, a cabinet minister and member of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, said the flap would not damage the underlying alliance. “Italy and the United States are allied countries and maintain their relationship and alliance within international institutions, starting obviously with the Atlantic Alliance,” Urso told Radio 24.

Meloni’s domestic position

Meloni has sought to shore up her standing at home after suffering a decisive referendum defeat last month, which analysts described as a de facto confidence test of her leadership. She made a two-day solo tour of three Gulf states to secure Italy’s gas and oil supply amid rising prices but returned without formal agreements.

Tocci described the trip as political signaling rather than diplomacy. “The Gulf tour was a way to show public opinion that she was being proactive. The fact it didn’t actually lead to anything is beside the point,” she said.

On the decision not to renew the Israel defense agreement, Tocci said the practical significance was limited but the symbolism mattered. The move “substantively is rather meaningless because there is not much in this agreement but symbolically it helps because Israel has become just so unpopular in Italian public opinion,” she said.

Roberto D’Alimonte, a professor at the LUISS school of government, predicted Meloni faces a difficult final stretch of her mandate before elections scheduled for 2027, driven largely by the economic toll of the Iran war.

“People want to see their gas bills go down, not just see Meloni talk about gas. What matters are the bills you get every month,” D’Alimonte said.