Until the national herd grows — a process measured in years under even favorable conditions — demand will outweigh supply and beef prices are likely to remain elevated, agricultural economists and ranchers say.
The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size in more than 75 years, and ranchers say the conditions needed to reverse that decline are not in place — leaving ground beef near all-time highs at American grocery stores.
The average price of all uncooked ground beef reached $6.86 per pound in March, according to federal statistics, just 3 cents below the record set in February. That figure is up nearly 48 percent from March 2021.
The national herd stood at 86 million head this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, down from a peak of 132 million in 1975. Until the herd expands — a process measured in years under even favorable conditions — demand will continue to outweigh supply and prices are likely to remain elevated, agricultural economists and ranchers say.
A Smaller Herd, Still Producing More Meat
The herd’s long decline has not come without adaptation. Changes in cattle genetics and feeding techniques have allowed ranchers to produce far more meat from each animal. U.S. beef production hit a record 28.4 billion pounds in 2022, said Tim Petry, a livestock marketing specialist at North Dakota State University. Production is expected to fall to about 26 billion pounds in 2026.
That efficiency gain has not been enough to meet demand. About 2.5 billion pounds of beef were exported to other countries in 2025, and tight domestic supply has put sustained pressure on retail prices.
Stephanie Hatzenbuhler, who runs the Diamond J Angus ranch on more than 2,000 acres near Mandan, North Dakota, will see about 700 calves born on her property this spring. Whether she retains those animals for breeding or sells them for slaughter depends on pasture conditions, market signals, and the economics of her individual operation — a calculation that illustrates why simple calls for more cattle production often collide with on-the-ground reality.
“They’re good times, and they’re bad times,” Hatzenbuhler said. “It’s a combination of both.”
Drought Limits Grazing Land
The most immediate constraint on herd expansion is drought. About 63 percent of the U.S. cattle herd is located in drought-affected areas, according to the USDA, leaving many ranchers without adequate pasture.
“You’ve got to have rain. You’ve got to have grass to keep cows on because they’re out on pastures for over half the year,” Petry said. “That’s been the dilemma — we had forced liquidation of cows.”
In drought-hit states such as Texas and Oklahoma, ranchers have had to truck in hay and water from other regions, adding substantially to operating costs. “When these pasture conditions deteriorate, and water becomes an issue, some of these states have to go as far as to haul hay, haul water from other regions of the country that have grass and easy access to water, and that adds a significant cost to operations,” said Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Some areas have also seen large wildfires that stripped grazing land of vegetation.
Even in favorable conditions, growing the national herd takes time. A calf requires 15 to 24 months to mature before it can be slaughtered, meaning any increase in breeding herds would take years to translate to store shelves.
Border Closure Blocks Mexican Cattle
A separate supply disruption has compounded the tight market: the closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to livestock imports that began in late 2024 to slow the spread of the New World screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite. The closure has stopped about 1 million cattle from being transported from Mexico into the United States, said Warren Rusche, an extension feedlot specialist at South Dakota State University. The disruption has fallen especially hard on feedlots and ranchers operating in the southern plains.
President Donald Trump has called for increased beef imports from Argentina as an offset, but Rusche said any expanded quota from that country would represent only a small fraction of U.S. beef production.
Processor Concentration: A Disputed Factor
Ranchers frequently point to the concentrated structure of the U.S. meat processing industry — primarily controlled by four companies — as a contributor to high retail prices. Processors and their trade groups dispute that framing.
The Meat Institute, which represents meat packers, said in a statement that retailers and food service companies, not packers, set consumer prices. The organization said livestock producers were “earning record profits” while packers were losing money, and argued that the industry’s concentration ratio had not “changed appreciably” over the past 30 years.
“Rhetoric about beef industry concentration implies that consolidation in the beef packing sector is ongoing and that market power is becoming increasingly concentrated. That is not the case,” the group said.
John Robinson, a spokesman for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, said many factors drive high beef prices, and in some cases processors bear responsibility, though he added that “it’s far more complicated than most people will give it credit for.”
Established Ranchers vs. New Entrants
Hatzenbuhler said established ranchers who own their land and equipment are generally in a sound position, but the same cost pressures driving record prices — expensive equipment, fertilizer, and labor — also make it difficult to break into the business.
“If you’re a young guy and want to get in, it’s probably not the time to do it, but if you’re kind of established and been doing this for a while, you’re doing good,” she said.
California rancher Mike Williams said he would not discourage new entrants but urged financial caution. He framed the current price environment as a correction after years of undervaluation.
“I would say that we’re finally maybe getting a fair price,” Williams said. “I think people are starting to realize the value of beef, and they’re finding that they’re willing to pay maybe a little more than they have in the past for the quality of the product that they’re getting.”