Europe faces six-week jet fuel supply cliff as Iran war chokes Hormuz

NEW YORK — International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol warned Thursday that Europe had “maybe six weeks” of remaining jet fuel supplies as the Iran war’s continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off roughly 40% of the continent’s jet fuel imports, with some countries already holding less than 20 days of coverage — a level not seen since 2020.

Iran’s foreign minister said Friday that tankers and other commercial vessels could again pass unimpeded through the narrow waterway, briefly pushing crude oil prices lower. But President Donald Trump said the United States would continue its blockade of Iranian ships entering or leaving the strait until Washington and Tehran reached a deal to end the war, which began Feb. 28 when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

With jet fuel prices roughly doubled since the conflict began, airlines across Europe and Asia have already begun cutting flights and raising fees. Analysts warn that if the Hormuz opening does not hold or fuel stocks continue falling, travelers could face higher airfares, schedule disruptions, and — at the most acute levels of shortage — flight cancellations at individual airports through the summer travel season.

Supply stocks near a critical threshold

An IEA report released this week found that a number of European countries now hold less than 20 days of jet fuel coverage, down from a floor of 29 days that had held since 2020. The agency warned that if coverage at any airport falls below 23 days, physical shortages may emerge, resulting in cancellations.

“Every passing day that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, Europe is edging closer to supply shortages,” said Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media. “The strait accounts for around 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports, but no jet fuel has passed the strait since the war broke out.”

In general, some European countries hold several months of jet fuel inventory at a time, the IEA report said — making the current drawdown all the more striking.

To offset some of the shortfall, the United States increased jet fuel exports to Europe to about 150,000 barrels per day in April, approximately six times the normal level, said Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners. Most of Europe’s jet fuel is produced by European refiners, but about 20% to 25% of its supply is missing because of the war, Rousseau said.

Emergency reserves cannot fill the gap quickly

The world is losing 10 million to 15 million barrels of oil per day as a result of the Hormuz closure, said Pavel Molchanov, senior investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates. The IEA has released 400 million barrels from members’ emergency stockpiles, but Molchanov said the effect would not be felt quickly.

“It could take until the end of the year to get all of those barrels onto the market,” he said.

Jet fuel — a refined kerosene-based product — makes up about 30% of overall airline expenses, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Airlines cut routes and accelerate retirements

Air Canada said Friday it was canceling service to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport between June and October due to surging jet fuel costs.

KLM said Thursday it would cut 160 flights in May — about 1% of its total European routes — citing “rising kerosene costs” and describing a number of flights as “no longer financially viable to operate.” The Dutch carrier said it was not experiencing current fuel shortages and did not comment further on the IEA warning.

Lufthansa said Thursday that labor disputes and high fuel prices were forcing it to immediately shut down its feeder airline CityLine, taking 27 older, less fuel-efficient planes out of service ahead of a shutdown previously planned for next year.

Budget carrier easyJet said it expected a pretax loss of 540 million to 560 million pounds — about $731 million to $758 million — for the first half of its 2026 fiscal year. CEO Kenton Jarvis said demand for flights remained strong overall.

Delta Air Lines, which frequently flies to European destinations, said Thursday it was “aware of the potential jet fuel supply issue” on the continent and monitoring the situation. Delta, which owns a refinery in Philadelphia, said it does not expect any “near-term impact to our operations.”

Travelers face higher costs and greater uncertainty

Airlines have moved to pass rising costs to passengers through baggage fees, fuel surcharges, and higher ticket prices. U.S. carriers Delta, United, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and JetBlue have all raised checked baggage fees in recent weeks. Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific bumped fuel surcharges by roughly 34% across all routes. Air India added up to $280 in fees to some flights. Emirates, Lufthansa, and KLM have also adjusted fees or fares.

Larger airlines hold an advantage in regions experiencing shortages because they have greater financial capacity to manage high prices, Rousseau said. The exposure gap between the United States and other regions is substantial.

“It’s just going to cost more here, whereas in different parts of the world you could actually get to a point where there’s just no fuel,” he said.

Christopher Anderson, a professor of operations, technology, and information management at Cornell University, said the supply squeeze had moved well beyond a simple pricing story.

“This is no longer just a fuel-price story. For airlines, it is now a network-planning story,” Anderson said. “Higher fuel costs matter, but so do longer routings, reduced scheduling flexibility and greater uncertainty about what demand will look like even a few weeks out.”

Travelers should expect “a market with later booking patterns, more schedule volatility and fewer low-fare options if this disruption lasts into the core summer season,” he said.

Asia-Pacific exposure

Asia-Pacific countries are the most reliant on oil and jet fuel from the Middle East, followed by Europe, Rousseau said. Availability of jet fuel inside the United States is less of an immediate concern given the country’s domestic production, though higher global prices affect U.S. carriers and consumers as well.