US jobless claims dip to 207,000 as layoffs stay low amid Iran war

Summary

The latest weekly figures on jobless aid suggest layoffs have stayed relatively low, even as uncertainty tied to the Iran war and higher energy prices continues to weigh on the outlook. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000.

The Labor Department also reported that the four-week moving average—used to smooth weekly volatility—rose by 500 to 209,750, after changes in prior weeks. The Labor Department’s report showed that the total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the prior week ending April 4 rose by 31,000 to 1.82 million.

Economists and analysts track jobless claims as a near-real-time indicator of layoffs. The Labor Department’s report also compared the latest week’s level with expectations gathered by FactSet, which surveyed analysts for what new filings would be.

The AP report said the latest drop came as the Iran war entered its seventh week, with uncertainty about how it could affect the U.S. and global economies even after Iran and the U.S. agreed to a ceasefire last week. The report said oil prices have settled around $92 a barrel, down from $112 the previous week, but still higher than before the war began, and that gasoline prices remain elevated.

The Labor Department also has reported broader inflation pressure tied to energy costs. The report said the largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades pushed consumer prices up 3.3% in March from a year earlier, compared with 2.4% in February, and that prices rose 0.9% from February to March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly four years.

In the same context, the AP report said the inflation reading reduced the odds of interest rate cuts soon. It said Federal Reserve officials raised rates three times to end 2025, then held off lowering rates further this year, alongside signs that the job market remains strained.

The report said the Labor Department’s earlier jobs data showed employers added an unexpectedly strong 178,000 new jobs in March, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. It also said February saw a loss of 92,000 jobs, and that revisions trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, reinforcing the idea that employment growth has not been steady.

Despite the relatively contained weekly layoff signal, the report cited job cuts at several high-profile companies, including Morgan Stanley, UPS and Amazon. It said hiring began slowing about two years ago and tapered further in 2025 amid factors including tariff-related uncertainty, a purge of the federal workforce and the lingering effects of high interest rates used to control inflation.

The report described the labor market as stuck in what economists call a “low-hire, low-fire” state—one that has kept unemployment historically low while leaving some job seekers struggling to find new work. Using that framing, the latest dip in initial claims points to continued steadiness in layoffs, even as war-driven uncertainty and elevated prices remain central to the broader economic picture.

FRED vintage figures used in this report: initial jobless claims were 207,000 for the week ending April 11, and the unemployment rate (U-3) was 4.3 for the period reflected in the cited series.