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President Donald Trump is betting his tax cuts—especially changes that expand how tips are taxed—will help him with Las Vegas voters as the 2026 midterm elections approach. At a rare trip out West, Trump is promoting the refunds and savings that he said will reach many Americans this tax season, while acknowledging that daily costs have become harder to manage as gasoline prices rise.
In Las Vegas, Trump highlighted the tax breaks for workers who earn tips and overtime, directing his appeal at voters he described as seeing bigger returns this year. In his remarks, Trump recalled that a woman in Las Vegas gave him the idea to make tips tax-free, and he tied the change to what he said are benefits for “thousands of Nevada waiters and waitresses, casino dealers, bartenders, bellmen, barbers, caddies.”
Trump made the pitch as he faces political pressure to keep the focus on domestic issues. The White House and Trump have linked higher gas prices to the conflict involving Iran, portraying the fuel spike as a temporary disruption rather than a break from the administration’s affordability agenda.
A central part of the campaign case is the size of tax refunds, which the Treasury Department said have averaged more than $3,400 this year, up about $340 from a year ago. The administration says tens of millions of Americans are benefiting from provisions in the tax law signed last year, and White House spokesman Kush Desai said the administration has not lost focus on affordability at home.
Local residents in the Las Vegas area described how those refund gains can be eaten away by the cost of driving. Gasoline prices in Las Vegas are averaging $5 a gallon, up 28% from a year ago, according to AAA, and one local resident said the price makes filling a tank cost more than $100.
Other residents described similar tradeoffs between food, groceries, and fuel. Paula Goodman, a bartender in a Henderson casino, said her biggest concern was the cost of living, including weekly grocery spending, while also saying she personally appreciated the tax savings on tips and did not blame Trump for higher gas prices as she described them as fluctuating rather than rooted in policy.
Economists and financial analysts cited in the reporting described the refund-to-gasoline balance as tenuous. A Bank of America Institute analysis concluded that the average increase in tax refunds could cover the average increase in gasoline spending for at least five months, and Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said the steep rise in gasoline prices looked likely to offset the increased tax funds windfall for households—though she said those payments could prevent a sharper drop in consumer spending.
As Trump argues for the tax-cut message, several political figures said the president’s broader public approach can make it harder to sustain. GOP strategist Ron Bonjean said among Republicans, frustration and concern are growing about whether Republicans can hold the House in November, and he argued that it takes repetition for a message promoting the tax bill to break through. Bonjean said Trump needs to address gasoline costs directly, arguing that focusing only on “no taxes on tips” would not be credible.
The uncertainty over how quickly gas prices might ease also remains part of the political background for the campaign. Trump told Fox News on Sunday that gas prices could be the same or possibly higher by the November midterms, later walking back that comment by saying they would be much lower before the election on the assumption the war would be long over. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that he was optimistic gas prices could return to “$3” sometime between June 20 and September 20, depending on negotiations with Iran.
In Las Vegas politics and labor circles, some Democrats and union leaders framed the affordability strain as hitting hospitality workers and reducing visitor flow. Joe Spica, a Democratic candidate for the state legislature and a steward of the Culinary Workers Union representing about 60,000 hospitality workers in Las Vegas and Reno, said workers are feeling belt-tightening because that can mean fewer visitors to Las Vegas and fewer tips. Spica said at a news conference organized by the union and the Nevada Democratic Party that “something has to change” quickly and that he believes administration policies are hurting Las Vegas.