China’s export growth slowed sharply in March even as imports surged, according to trade data released by China’s customs agency and reported by the Associated Press. Exports rose 2.5% from a year earlier, down from the 21.8% growth recorded for January and February.
The slowdown, the AP reported, came as uncertainty linked to the Iran war began to affect energy prices and global demand. Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French bank Natixis, said the deceleration started as the Iran war began to affect demand and supply chains.
Imports climbed 27.8% in March from a year earlier, the AP said, compared with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in the first two months of the year. The contrasting direction between imports and exports highlighted how different parts of China’s trade were responding to shifting global conditions.
The AP reported that China’s export performance earlier in 2026 has been supported by technology-related shipments, including a jump in semiconductors. Economists cited continued strength in semiconductors and “green” technologies—such as solar cells, wind turbines and electric vehicles—as potential offsets to broader weakness if the Iran war drags on.
Bank of America economists led by Helen Qiao said in a research note that the risks would “arise from a persistent global slowdown in overall demand if the conflict lasts longer than currently expected.” The AP also reported that those economists and others pointed to energy supply disruptions potentially increasing global demand for renewable technologies, even while the broader macro effect could weigh on overall consumption.
Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, told the AP that exports should stay solid in the coming quarters. Huang said exports could remain supported by strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies despite energy-price shock, and he added that the late timing of the Lunar New Year—falling in mid-February—likely also disrupted March export data as some holiday disruptions spilled into the month.
The AP reported that U.S. policy and diplomacy also remained a factor for Chinese trade flows. It said President Donald Trump’s elevated tariffs on Chinese exports and tensions between Washington and Beijing have strained shipments to the United States in recent months, while China stepped up exports to other regions, including Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
The AP said exports to the U.S. fell 26.5% year-on-year in March, widening from an 11% drop in January and February. It also reported that China’s exports to the European Union and Southeast Asia rose 8.6% and 6.9%, respectively.
The report added that analysts were watching Trump’s planned visit to Beijing in May to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping after a delay attributed to the Iran war. It also said Chinese leaders have set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest since 1991, and noted that exports have been a key driver of growth as the property sector slump weighs on domestic demand and investments.
Some economists told the AP that China has been relatively well-positioned to shield itself from Iran-war fallout. They pointed to China’s vast oil reserves and diversified energy sources, and also noted the potential for impacts from disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route, though the degree of effect may vary.