China’s exports grew more slowly in March than in the first two months of the year, with analysts pointing to the Iran war as a new source of uncertainty for energy prices, global demand and trade logistics. The March export figure released by China’s customs agency was up 2.5% from a year earlier, but it marked a sharp step down from the 21.8% export growth logged in January and February, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.
Imports accelerated over the same period, rising 27.8% year-on-year in March, after 19.8% growth in the first two months. Economists said the data reflected shifting demand and costs as the Iran war affects energy markets and the broader global economy that buys Chinese goods.
Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said in the AP report that “China’s exports have decelerated as the Iran war starts to affect global demand and supply chains.” Other economists echoed that link, warning that the conflict could weaken external demand further if it lasts longer than expected.
Bank of America economists led by Helen Qiao wrote in a research note that risks would “arise from a persistent global slowdown in overall demand if the conflict lasts longer than currently expected.” The same note also suggested that energy disruptions could strengthen global demand for some of China’s renewable-energy technologies, including solar cells, wind turbines and electric vehicles, even as longer-term uncertainty builds elsewhere.
Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, said exports should remain solid in the coming quarters despite the energy-price shock, writing that stronger demand for semiconductors and green technologies could support export momentum. Huang also cited the timing of the Lunar New Year, which fell in mid-February, as a factor that likely disrupted March trade figures as holiday-related effects spilled over.
The AP report also pointed to continued strain from U.S.-China trade tensions. It said U.S. President Donald Trump’s elevated tariffs on Chinese exports and the broader Washington-Beijing frictions had been straining shipments to the United States in recent months, even as China increased exports to other regions such as Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
China’s export mix by destination reflected those pressures. The report said China’s exports to the U.S. fell 26.5% year-on-year in March, widening from an 11% drop in January and February. It also said exports to the European Union and Southeast Asia rose 8.6% and 6.9%, respectively.
Beyond the monthly trade numbers, the AP report connected the figures to China’s wider growth outlook. It said Chinese leaders set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest range since 1991, and noted that analysts expect exports to remain a key driver of expansion as a prolonged property-sector slump weighs on domestic demand and investment. The report also said some economists believe China has been relatively well-positioned to shield itself from Iran-war fallout because of factors such as vast oil reserves, diversified energy sources and reduced exposure to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.