Republicans and Democrats are using a cluster of recent state and local elections to read the political weather ahead of the November midterms, and this week’s results have left GOP strategists arguing over whether they signal alarm—or simply the limits of special elections as predictors.
The bluntest assessment came from U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is running for governor in Wisconsin. After Democratic wins in Wisconsin and a closer-than-usual Republican result in Georgia, Tiffany said Republicans had “got our butts kicked,” an assessment that drew attention to Democratic progress in races Republicans view as key indicators for November.
In Wisconsin, Democrats expanded their majority in a statewide Supreme Court contest and also won Waukesha’s mayor’s office, in a victory over a Republican candidate described as one of the more conservative members of the state Assembly. A Democratic candidate for the mayor’s office, Alicia Halvensleben, said Trump came up “a lot” during the campaign, but she said her win ultimately reflected local issues and concerns that the state legislature was not addressing them.
Halvensleben linked the local outcome to anxiety driven by national conditions, saying there is “so much uncertainty at the national level,” and that the uncertainty is causing “people a lot of anxiety, all the way down to the local level.” Her comments echoed what other Wisconsin Democrats framed as enthusiasm and momentum heading into the fall.
Democratic strategists pointed to the breadth of gains. Jared Leopold, a Democratic consultant whose clients include Georgia gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, said, “In rural, urban, red, blue, Democrats have overperformed everywhere,” and described the pattern as “a significant canary in the coal mine about what November of ’26 is going to look like.”
In Georgia, the message from Democrats leaned on a congressional special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Congress in January after a falling out with Donald Trump. Democrat Shawn Harris is reported as planning to challenge Republican Clay Fuller again in November, after Fuller won the special election by a margin that was narrower than Republicans had achieved in the district in the past.
Meredith Brasher, a Democratic strategist, said the Georgia result was “a red alarm for Republicans.” She contrasted Fuller’s win to the seat’s earlier baseline, noting that two years ago Greene won by 29 percentage points and that Trump carried the district by almost 37 percentage points—comparisons that Democrats have used to argue that Republican strength in the district has softened.
Republicans, however, offered a more cautious interpretation and emphasized the difference between a special election and a broader statewide or congressional contest. Stephen Lawson, a Georgia strategist, said “the sky is not falling,” while also acknowledging that Republicans are running behind where they have been in the past and that the party needs to “be looking at these results carefully.”
Lawson’s concern was reflected in Republican reassessments across the Midwest and the South, where party leaders are weighing how much special-election voting behavior is likely to carry into the more competitive midterm environment. Democrats pointed to other recent wins as part of that context, including gains in Texas and Florida legislative races and the Georgia congressional result, as evidence they are building momentum across different kinds of districts.
In Wisconsin, Democrats framed the statewide Supreme Court results and local victories as direct signals for the fall. Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Devin Remiker said the election was “a very clear sign of momentum and enthusiasm for Democrats in the fall,” citing gains in red, blue and purple counties compared with another judicial race won by the liberal candidate last year.
Remiker and other candidates also tied the judicial results to political goals beyond the courts, including attempts to win the open governor’s race and gain control of the state Legislature. Mandela Barnes, a Democratic former lieutenant governor running for governor, said “It’s time for us to put this thing in overdrive,” while Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley said it is clear that “people are really upset with the Republican Party and their brand right now.”
Crowley also cautioned against assuming that upset automatically converts into votes for Democrats, saying “that doesn’t mean that they’re automatically going to come over to the Democrats.” He said the party still needs to focus on policy issues and on addressing what he described as voters’ underlying values.
On the Republican side, Tiffany warned against reading too much into a single set of elections, saying “every election is unique” and that he was not making changes to his campaign. He said the key to winning will be drawing a clear contrast on how his party intends to help “everyday Wisconsinites,” even as Democrats attempt to turn their recent wins into momentum heading into broader contests in November.
In Georgia, Democrats used party leadership messaging to define expectations for the governor’s race and Senate races, with Charlie Bailey, the Georgia Democratic Party chair, describing a longer-term goal of moving Georgia toward a “slightly bluer side of purple.” Bailey said Democrats do not expect an overnight shift, but that recent results suggested an opening.
As Democrats seek to build on the combination of statewide and local victories, Republicans are left grappling with whether the gaps exposed by special elections represent durable weaknesses or temporary anomalies—an argument that will matter more if the pattern continues into the statewide races scheduled later this year.