Midwest soybean farmers say tariffs and Iran war are compounding long-running cost stress
Strong winds whipped around Doug Bartek as he headed into a grain bin in the Nebraska spring planting season, an image he described alongside a familiar list of farm pressures: fuel, equipment and fertilizer costs that keep rising and soybean prices that have not rebounded. Bartek, a fifth-generation farmer near Wahoo, said the Iran war and tariffs added new strain on top of years of weak returns for producers.
Bartek described markups for the basic inputs needed to plant and manage crops, saying there has been “so much drastic markup in all of these,” including fertilizer, seed, chemicals and parts. He said he feels “like the farmer’s kind of painted in the corner,” pointing to the way higher costs collide with low soybean prices. Bartek is chairman of the Nebraska Soybean Association.
Producers in the Midwest say their outlook is shaped by multiple forces at once: equipment and other operating costs that have climbed over time, soybean prices that have stayed depressed due to global supply glut, and trade disruptions that have reduced export demand. In parallel, they said the Iran war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to higher costs for key fertilizers and related inputs.
Bartek’s concerns match a broader picture of market conditions that economists and farmers describe as years in the making. Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said global soybean production has continued “after record, after record, after record,” and that those large supplies have driven depressed prices. He said the U.S. soybean business also relies heavily on corn, and that trends affecting farm expenses and prices can amplify pressure when revenue stays weak.
Other specialists said the squeeze also shows up in farm operations and land markets. Paul Mitchell, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said farmers face “negative margins driven by low prices and high cost,” and that liquidity can become a “cash crunch” that leaves producers trying to manage everything at once. Joana Colussi, a research assistant professor at Purdue University, said crop land values have increased and that many regional farmers rent land, leaving them exposed to higher rent bills.
Bartek, who rents three-quarters of his land, said landowners are increasing rents and that absentee owners often set terms without understanding the farm’s day-to-day realities. He said, “All they know is their taxes went up and you get to make up the difference, some way, somehow.” He said those higher fixed costs make it harder to absorb swings in commodity prices and input pricing.
Farmers and experts also traced part of the financial strain to tariffs and a trade war with China, a leading buyer of U.S. soybeans. The AP report said tariffs levied by the Trump administration in April 2025 exacerbated a trade war with China, and that China retaliated with tariffs and effectively boycotted U.S. soybeans, cutting off a major export market and pushing soybean prices lower. Farmers said the damage was not fully undone by later purchases and assistance.
Justin Sherlock, a soybean farmer in North Dakota and president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said many producers are “pretty nervous going into this year” and that the outlook appears to include “another year of negative returns.” Other farmers described how timing and cash flow can determine whether they can wait out lower prices; Mike Cerny, a soybean and winter wheat corn farmer in Sharon, Wisconsin, said producers who could hold onto beans until better times fared better than those needing to sell for mortgage payments and other obligations.
The report said the U.S. and China reached a deal in late 2025, with China committing to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by January and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. It said China met its initial purchase goal and that the Trump administration rolled out a $12 billion temporary aid package in December to help farmers affected by the trade war, but added that experts and farmers said the losses were already done and were still being felt.
In the background, the Iran war has become another driver of farm costs through the energy and shipping channels. The AP report said after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed, oil prices rose and nitrogen fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf were disrupted, contributing to a spike in urea prices. It said urea is a widely traded nitrogen fertilizer, and that about half the global supply comes from the Middle East, with Qatar and Saudi Arabia cited as top sources of U.S. fertilizer imports.
The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire last week that included reopening the strait, but the report said traffic remained slowed amid disagreements over Israeli attacks in Lebanon and urea prices stayed elevated. It also said some farmers who bought fertilizer early avoided the worst of the spike, while others who did not buy in advance faced higher prices. Dave Walton, a corn, soybean and hay farmer in Iowa and vice president of the American Soybean Association, said in March that some neighbors did not have cash on hand the previous fall and struggled to budget for fertilizer due to high prices.
Analysts said the war’s effects on farming are also tied to broader disruptions in commodity chemicals and fuel. Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein said oil prices dropped after the ceasefire announcement, but said the war and the closure of the strait will have lasting impacts because facilities critical for exporting chemicals and other commodities were damaged or destroyed. Goldstein added that facilities have been hit, including liquid natural gas plants, and that the war could cause a “big supply crunch” in commodity chemicals used as inputs for crop chemicals.
Farm bankruptcies and survey results also point to strain. The report said farm bankruptcies, while still relatively low, continued to climb in 2025, citing the American Farm Bureau Federation. It also said a Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture survey of 400 farmers conducted in late March found almost half said their farm operations were financially worse off than a year earlier, with Goldstein saying high costs and low revenues contributed to the increase in bankruptcies between 2024 and 2025.
Bartek said after 43 years of farming he still feels the excitement of spring planting, but he also hears of farmer suicides, bankruptcies and “retirement sales” where farmers auction off operations due to financial problems. He compared farming to gambling, saying producers put “millions of dollars in the dirt” hoping for returns. As he worries about the future, including his son’s decision to buy a farm, Bartek said, “Did I do the right thing helping him get into farming?”