China’s car exports accelerated in March as automakers pressed overseas sales, even as domestic demand weakened, according to an industry association’s monthly figures. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said passenger-car exports climbed 82.4% year-on-year to about 748,000 vehicles last month, up from about 586,000 exported in February.
The same data showed a sharper rise for electric-vehicle and plug-in hybrid shipments. The association said exports of “new energy” passenger vehicles—including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids—surged more than 140% year-on-year in March to 363,000 units, compared with about 276,000 in February. The push overseas has included expanding efforts and, in some cases, production facilities outside China, the report said.
Chris Liu, a Shanghai-based senior analyst at advisory group Omdia, said the Iran war’s impact on energy prices has not fully appeared in March export data yet. “The impact of the Iran conflict hasn’t fully shown up in March data yet, but it can act as a trigger,” Liu said. He added, “In many markets that are structurally well suited for EVs, adoption has been slow simply because consumers lacked urgency,” and that “A sharp rise in fuel prices changes that.”
The overseas push also comes amid pressure on China’s domestic vehicle market. The association’s data, as reported, showed domestic passenger-car sales fell 19.2% year-on-year in March to nearly 1.7 million units, marking a fifth consecutive month of year-on-year declines. The report tied the domestic slowdown to scaled-back government support this year aimed at encouraging drivers to switch to new energy vehicles, along with fierce brand competition and a prolonged property sector slump weighing on consumer appetite for large purchases.
UBS auto analyst Paul Gong said the weakness in domestic sales is unlikely to last and that overseas sales could offset the softer demand at home. Gong, head of China autos research at UBS investment bank, said, “For the overall industry, the overseas market’s sales volume growth is more than enough to offset domestic decline on a full-year basis.” He also predicted overseas passenger car sales for Chinese automakers might grow by 20% or more this year compared with last year.
Industry shifts are already visible in multiple regions, the report said, including Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. It described Chinese car brands as having made inroads in those markets over the past months as companies stepped up sales efforts abroad.
As automakers balance a struggling domestic market with growing overseas momentum, the report suggested expectations for an EV-led pivot could intensify if energy price pressures associated with the Iran war continue. Liu’s comments pointed to a possible timing gap between energy shocks and changes in consumer urgency, which he said could emerge after the March figures.