President Donald Trump’s shift from threatening Iran with “annihilation” to agreeing to a 14-day ceasefire played out over the course of a single day, ending a tense standoff over the Strait of Hormuz as intermediaries pushed to keep the conflict from widening further. The agreement came after Trump’s warning deadline for Tehran to reopen the strategic waterway or face strikes on power plants and other critical infrastructure, and it was announced shortly afterward in a Tuesday social media post.
The ceasefire announcement followed intense diplomatic activity by intermediaries led by Pakistan, according to two officials briefed on the effort who spoke on condition of anonymity. The officials also said China—described as Iran’s biggest trading partner and the United States’ most significant economic competitor—quietly worked behind the scenes to find a path toward a ceasefire. Trump later described the result as a “workable” plan presented by Iran’s leadership, and he framed the move as progress toward longer-term peace.
In the Tuesday post, Trump said the reason for the ceasefire was that the U.S. had “already met and exceeded all Military objectives,” and that it was “very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.” The ceasefire timing was close to his deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz, arriving about 90 minutes before that deadline. Even with the announcement, the ceasefire quickly looked fragile as competing public descriptions began to appear the next day.
On Wednesday, the U.S., Iran and Israel issued differing statements about what was covered by the deal less than 24 hours after it was brokered. Iran insisted that ending the Israeli war in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement with the United States, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump said the truce did not cover Lebanon and that Israel’s operations there continued. The U.S. position, according to the reporting, was that Iran needed to follow through on reopening the strait, after Iran had closed the waterway in response to Israel’s attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Vice President JD Vance, who is expected to lead a U.S. delegation to Pakistan later this week for mediated talks with Iran aimed at finding a permanent agreement, sought to play down the early setbacks. As Vance wrapped up a visit to Hungary, he told reporters that “no ceasefire ever goes without a little bit of choppiness,” and added, “We’re seeing evidence that things are going in the right direction, but it’s going to take a little time.” In the same reporting, the White House later confirmed that Vance would lead the negotiating team for talks with Iran.
The diplomacy also included additional U.S. messaging and leadership meetings. On Wednesday, Trump met at the White House with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The reporting said Trump has been angry that NATO member countries did not help reopen the “vital waterway,” amid gas price pressure during the war, and the meeting took place as the ceasefire was being publicly tested.
Trump’s hard-line posture drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers and from abroad as the deadline neared. Democrats decried Trump’s threat as a “moral failure,” while Pope Leo XIV warned that strikes against civilian infrastructure would violate international law and said Trump’s comments were “truly unacceptable.” The reporting said Trump may have backed down in part because escalation could risk involving the United States in a “forever war,” which he had vowed to avoid if voters returned him to the White House.
Beyond the immediate diplomatic wrangling, the reporting described why controlling the Strait of Hormuz could impose a long, high-risk commitment. Analysts said the U.S. military could take control of the narrow Persian Gulf waterway between Iran and Oman, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows each day, but maintaining security over the strait would require a resource-intensive operation that could last years. Ben Connable, executive director of the nonprofit Battle Research Group, said securing the strait would likely require the U.S. to maintain control of about 600 kilometers (373 miles) of Iranian territory, from Kish Island to Bandar Abbas, to stop Iran from firing missiles at passing ships.
Connable said the mission would likely require “three U.S. infantry divisions, roughly 30,000 to 45,000 troops,” and warned it could become an indefinite deployment. “This would be an indefinite operation — so, you know, think: be ready to do this for 20 years,” Connable said, comparing the long timeline to U.S. expectations in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq. The reporting also said a regional official described one element of the two-week ceasefire as allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through Hormuz, with Iran using the money it raised for reconstruction.
U.S. officials also signaled the immediate priority was reopening the strait without conditions. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had considered charging a toll for vessels passing through the strait, but that his near-term priority was “the reopening of the strait without any limitations, whether in the form of tolls or otherwise.” She also pointed to Vance’s role in shaping the approach as the deadline neared, saying “Vice President Vance has played a very significant and a key role in this since the very beginning.”
According to the reporting, Vance’s involvement grew as his experience with restraint in overseas military intervention brought him into the mediation effort close to the deadline. An official from one of the mediating countries said Vance expressed measured confidence that a permanent deal could be reached if Iran acted in good faith. Vance said, “I encourage the Iranians to come to the table seriously,” adding, “We’ve seen some signs that they’re going to do that, we’ve seen some signs of bravado. Fundamentally, we’re in a good spot.”
The White House confirmed that the U.S. delegation for the mediated talks with Iran is expected to include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The talks are expected to begin Friday in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, as mediators work to turn the temporary ceasefire into something broader and more durable.