The ceasefire that took effect Wednesday after a tentative, 2-week deal has triggered fresh optimism that fighting among Iran, Israel and the United States could be brought to an end. But the early takeaways from the war’s final stretch also show how large the gaps remain—between what Washington and Israel are pressing for and what Iran is signaling it will accept.
In Iran’s leadership track, Trump suggested that the strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war amounted to “regime change.” The article says Khamenei was succeeded by his son, Mojtaba, who is described as close to the country’s Revolutionary Guard and seen as even more hostile toward the U.S. It also says Mojtaba has been believed to be wounded in the strike that killed his father and has not been seen or spoken in public since the war began, while Iran’s broader political class supporting the Shiite theocracy is described as intact. The piece adds that while some Iranians are angry with their leaders, it says there has been no sign of an uprising since authorities crushed mass protests in January, before the war.
Diplomatically, nuclear expectations are among the most visible fault lines. The article says all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains in the country and is “likely entombed” at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June. It reports that Iran has not enriched since then but maintains that it has the right to do so for peaceful purposes while denying it is seeking nuclear weapons. It also says Trump told people Wednesday that the U.S. would work with Iran to “dig up and remove” the uranium, while noting that Iran did not confirm that. On dismantlement, the article says Trump and Israel have called for Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program, while Iran rejected that position in a 10-point proposal for ending the war.
On the military side, the war’s scale complicates any prospect of a simple pause in violence. The article says that since the war began Feb. 28, Iran has launched more than 5,000 drones, over 2,100 ballistic missiles and over 50 cruise missiles, citing statistics from the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America, which it says has close ties to the Israeli military. It also reports that before the war JINSA estimated Iran’s arsenal to be between 8,000 to 10,000 ballistic missiles of various ranges, and that no public estimate exists of Iran’s drone stockpile. The U.S. and Israel are described as saying they destroyed or buried many of Iran’s missile launchers and that Israel greatly reduced Iran’s ability to produce and launch missiles, though it did not eliminate the threat and Iran continued launching attacks.
Iran’s regional approach—particularly through allied militant groups—remains another unresolved area. The article says Israel mauled Iran’s allied militant groups across the region in wars sparked by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack from the Gaza Strip. It reports that Lebanon’s Hezbollah, described as the strongest of these groups, is still fighting Israel and that the fighting Israel says will continue despite the ceasefire. It also says Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired on Israel only a few times during the war and left Red Sea shipping alone, while Hamas still controls around half of Gaza and has yet to disarm under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire. It adds that Israel wants Iran to end support for these groups, and says Tehran has refused that demand and did not mention it in its peace proposal.
Maritime pressure and energy pathways have become part of the bargaining. The article says the U.S. military’s Central Command stated it destroyed over 150 ships—effectively sinking the Iranian navy—and that it also destroyed multiple Iranian warplanes, helicopters and other equipment, along with military installations and missile factories. Yet it says Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which around a fifth of the world’s traded oil passes, and erected what it calls a virtual toll booth to charge countries for using it. It reports that before the war, ships freely passed through the strait in the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, and that now Iran is reported to be charging as much as $2 million a vessel. The article says Iran and Oman are working on a proposal to split fees in the waterway and that Tehran insists it will maintain military control there, potentially creating a new revenue stream in the face of international sanctions. It also reports that Trump said America will be “hangin’ around” to ensure traffic passes and that the U.S. and other countries are likely to oppose any new system, setting up the risk of a flashpoint.
For Gulf Arab states, the article frames the war’s effects as both economic and strategic. It says Iranian attacks caused widespread damage to oil and gas facilities, airports and other sites, disrupting the region’s image as stable business and tourism hubs. It specifically notes Qatar, saying it has said it will take years to restore its natural gas output. It also reports that Gulf distrust of Iran has never been deeper and that faith in U.S. defense has been shaken, even as U.S. bases across the region suffered direct strikes. It says there is no indication of any American withdrawal, despite Iran’s demand.
The article concludes that while Israel inflicted losses on Iran, it has not produced what it calls a “knockout blow” on key capabilities, and that the political expectations inside Israel may be hard to meet. It says Israel was repeatedly targeted by Iranian fire, but its advanced air defenses and bomb shelters provided protection. It reports Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as saying Israel inflicted major losses on Iran, but also says the U.S. and Israel fell short of eliminating Iran’s nuclear or missile programs and that the hoped-for uprising to topple the Islamic Republic has not materialized. It adds that Israel says it has assurances the U.S. will address Iran’s nuclear and missile programs in negotiations, but that many Israelis may be disappointed by yet another inconclusive war that could weigh on Netanyahu ahead of elections later this year.