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A group of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made sharply timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire in the hours before Donald Trump publicly announced the deal, according to an Associated Press analysis published Wednesday. The findings centered on trading made on April 7 on a market tied to a two-week ceasefire that was announced on Tuesday.

The analysis found that at least 50 newly funded Polymarket wallets placed substantial “Yes” bets on Tuesday before Trump posted about the ceasefire in a Truth Social message at around 6:30 p.m. ET. The bets were made even as Trump’s rhetoric earlier on Tuesday escalated sharply and few signals suggested a ceasefire agreement was imminent, the report said.

The AP reported that earlier in the day Trump warned on social media that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by an 8 p.m. ET deadline. The ceasefire, announced as a two-week agreement, came after that threat.

According to the same AP analysis, the blockchain data—analyzed with the crypto analytics platform Dune—suggested that one wallet created on Tuesday around 10 a.m. ET placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-ins for each betting event ranged from $0 to $1, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what the bettors thought could happen, the report said; the user later cashed out for a profit of about $200,000.

The report also described additional newly created wallets that traded on the same event. Another wallet joined the platform on April 6 and traded on the exact event, according to AP, and showed a win of $125,500. A third wallet created about 12 minutes before Trump’s post made $31,908 in “Yes” bets at 33.7 cents, which AP said was estimated to have yielded a profit of about $48,500.

AP said that the timing of the higher “Yes” price—at 33.7 cents—may have reflected efforts late Tuesday by Pakistan’s government to urge Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. The report also noted that it is not possible to identify the people controlling the new wallets from public blockchain data, because Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets that can be created in multiple accounts by a single user.

Some traders, AP reported, were positioned to profit from the outcome of the ceasefire market, but Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as “disputed.” AP said that dispute is tied to conditions including that Iran was still imposing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and that missile attacks in the region continued, and that resolving the dispute could take up to 48 hours.

Public blockchain data also cannot show whether these newly funded wallets represented brand-new users or existing users opening additional accounts, the report said. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment, according to AP.

The episode drew scrutiny from lawmakers and academics focused on market integrity. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah—who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets—said in a statement that it was “highly unlikely” the trades were “good-faith,” arguing that “it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public.” Moore added that without restrictions, “there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions,” AP reported.

The AP analysis said the trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing large, well-timed wagers mirrors earlier episodes on the platform, including a cluster of accounts profiting around the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. It said similar groups have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets related to military actions involving Iran, and it pointed to bipartisan congressional efforts to broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.

Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who studies prediction markets and their regulations, was cited in the AP report as saying: “This is why these markets need regulation.” He added that the concern is that markets could allow trading with inside information while other traders take positions without it.