BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungary will vote on April 12, with many across the European Union hoping the result will curb Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ability to slow or block EU action. The election is being framed as having broader “aftershocks” for Brussels because Orban has spent years frustrating EU leaders on rule-of-law issues and on how the bloc responds to major foreign-policy crises, including the war in Ukraine.
EU lawmakers and analysts said Orban’s approach has been especially consequential for decisions that require unanimity among the bloc’s member states. They argued that his long grip on power has been reinforced by his familiarity with EU governance and by the way EU funding flows to member countries, which can create leverage inside the bloc when decisions stall or proceed only after concessions.
Several officials pointed to Orban’s use of vetoes as a key operational constraint on EU policy. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orban frequently used his veto power, according to lawmakers and analysts quoted by The Associated Press, to stymie efforts to support Kyiv and sanction Moscow, while his closeness with Vladimir Putin has also been cited in that context.
Within the EU, frustration with Orban has also been linked to rule-of-law and governance disputes. A freeze on billions in funding to Budapest began in 2022 over breaches of rule-of-law standards, and EU lawmakers and analysts said the situation reflected unresolved concerns about judicial independence, media freedom, and corruption. Critics also said Orban has repeatedly resisted pressure to reverse democratic backsliding while continuing to benefit from EU funds earlier in his tenure.
Péter Magyar, Orban’s election opponent, is offering voters a different EU relationship if he wins. Magyar told The Associated Press he would pursue a “constructive but critical” relationship with the bloc and said he believed Hungary’s election would be “a referendum on our country’s place in the world,” with the contest seen by many in Europe as a potential escape route from obstruction inside EU governance.
As EU leaders try to manage crises ranging beyond Ukraine—conflicts in the Middle East and concern over Russian sabotage efforts, along with economic and geopolitical pressures—Orban’s veto power is also being discussed as a structural problem in the EU’s treaty design. German lawmaker Daniel Freund said an internal European Parliament report shows Orban vetoed far more than any other leader in EU history, and he called it “the biggest design flaw in the EU that he has exposed,” arguing that the unanimity requirement has left the bloc exposed when member states take a hard line.
The EU is also considering whether to strengthen enforcement mechanisms, including possible legal or political responses. Some politicians have proposed invoking Article 7 of the Treaty on the EU to revoke Hungary’s voting rights, but Freund and other lawmakers said that would require agreement from other EU leaders, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico saying he would veto such a move.
Beyond treaty steps, EU officials have discussed other leverage. Analysts told The Associated Press that the European Commission had not approved Hungary’s bid to draw about 16 billion euros from an EU program to boost members’ defense capabilities, while the other 18 countries with plans had their applications approved. They said the EU could, in theory, use that funding in bargaining if Orban is reelected—potentially seeking concessions such as lifting his veto related to a separate 90-billion euro loan to Ukraine.
The negotiations are not without risk, the analysts said. Berlin-based Institute for European Politics deputy director Dániel Hegedűs described Orban’s pattern as one in which he navigated EU rules, extracting influence by blocking decisions, saying: “He entered a club, read the rules, figured out how he can rig the rules, and then started to be a free rider and blackmail all of the other club members.” Hegedűs added that there is no guarantee that a deal over one issue would prevent future vetoes on the next strategic decision.
Orban’s conflicts with EU institutions have also produced personal moments of tension among EU leadership. The Associated Press reported that last month European Council President Antonio Costa became visibly irked when Orban reneged on a deal struck in December to provide Ukraine with a 90-billion euro loan, and Costa said, “Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions.”
Orban’s conduct has prompted renewed debate inside the EU about how member states are accepted and monitored over time. European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that countries including Hungary that joined the EU in the period from 2004 to 2007 “led to a new era of stability for our continent,” but without naming Hungary, she said the lesson learned from that expansion is that the EU “need[s] to have safeguards that ensure new members stick to the rules.” She added that “No Trojan horses” should pass through those safeguards when democracy and rule of law fundamentals are at risk.