President Donald Trump, in an address to the nation Wednesday night, mixed claims about the war in Iran with statements about the state of the U.S. economy, including inflation and gas prices. An Associated Press review found that several of Trump’s assertions stretched beyond what is supported by economic data and reporting about leadership shifts and protest casualties in Iran.
On inflation, Trump said the country had been “a dead and crippled country” that he “made it the hottest country anywhere in the world by far, with no inflation.” The fact check said the economy Trump inherited did not match that characterization. It cited that U.S. gross domestic product grew 2.8% in 2024, adjusted for inflation, and noted growth remained solid from 2021 through 2023. It also pointed to a deceleration in 2025 growth, saying a 43-day federal government shutdown contributed to weaker results from October through December. The review also said inflation had not vanished, citing that the consumer price index was up 2.4% in February compared with a year earlier and remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Trump also tied his foreign-policy claim to the idea that Iran’s leadership had been removed and that a new governing group was therefore less radical. He said, “Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred” because “all of their original leaders’ death.” The fact check said Trump’s description does not align with what has been reported about succession and command. It said Israel’s Feb. 28 airstrike at the start of the war killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and that Iran then installed his son, Mojtaba, as supreme leader. The review said Iran’s monthlong conflict has also featured the Revolutionary Guard gaining even more ascendancy, while Iran’s civilian leadership—described as broadly untouched by the war—has acknowledged it has limited command and control over the Guard’s actions.
The Associated Press review also said that both Trump and Israel have signaled they would tell the Iranian people to rise up at a point in the war to take back their government, but that such a development described by them had not happened. In the review’s framing, Trump’s claim of a completed transformation into a more reasonable leadership group did not match the reported outcome.
Trump further cited an extremely high casualty figure for protesters in Iran. He said, “This murderous regime also recently killed 45,000 of their own people who were protesting in Iran.” The fact check said a death toll that high has not been verified. It cited that the U.S.-based group Human Rights Activists News Agency said it confirmed deaths of just over 7,000 people in nationwide protests that reached their apex in January, while warning that thousands more “may have been killed” because internet and communication restrictions made verification difficult. The review also cited the group’s estimate that arrests exceeded 53,000, and said Iran’s government offered its own toll on Jan. 21, saying 3,117 people were killed.
The review said Trump previously claimed at least 32,000 people were killed in January protests, which it described as at the far end of estimates offered by activists. It said Trump offered no evidence to support those figures.
Trump also argued that the United States is insulated from Middle East dynamics. He said, “We’re now totally independent of the Middle East, and yet we are there to help. We don’t have to be there. We don’t need their oil.” The Associated Press review said that while the U.S. is the world’s leading oil producer and depends on the Persian Gulf for a relatively small share of its oil imports—described as 8.5% in 2025—U.S. prices can still be affected by turmoil in the region. It said oil is a global commodity whose price is set in a world market, quoting University of Chicago energy analyst Sam Ori as saying that “the price of which is set in a global market,” and that “a disruption anywhere affects the price everywhere.” The review said benchmark U.S. crude oil rose more than 50% after the Iran war began, and that the average price of a U.S. gallon of gasoline cracked $4 “this week.”
The fact check also addressed Trump’s investment claims, saying he cited “record-setting setting investments coming into the United States, over $18 trillion,” but did not provide evidence that he secured that amount. It said the figure appeared exaggerated and speculative compared with lower numbers found on the White House website, which offered $10.5 trillion and included commitments made during the Biden administration. The review added that a study published in January raised doubts that more than $5 trillion in investment commitments made last year by major trading partners would materialize, and questioned how such investment would be spent if it did.
Finally, the review addressed a cash claim that Trump made about Iran policy in the Obama years. Trump said, “Obama gave them $1.7 billion in cash.” The fact check said that claim was misleading and has been repeated since Trump’s first term. It said the U.S. Treasury paid Iran roughly that amount under Obama, but described it not as a gift—saying it was money owed from the 1970s when Iran paid the U.S. $400 million for military equipment that was never delivered due to the overthrow of the Iranian government and the rupture of diplomatic relations. The review said that after a 2015 deal to restrain Iran’s nuclear development, the U.S. and Iran settled the matter, with the U.S. agreeing to pay the $400 million principal in cash and about $1.3 billion in interest, and that Trump later withdrew the U.S. from the deal.
__ Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.