As the Iran war continues and financial markets swing on each new signal of ceasefire or escalation risk, President Donald Trump has increasingly leaned on public comments aimed at steering trading expectations—often to keep oil prices from surging, stocks from falling and rates from jumping.
The Associated Press analysis describes a pattern: when markets flash danger, Trump has turned to social media posts or remarks claiming the conflict he started last month could soon end. He also has told investors that market performance has been better than expected, even as the S&P 500 declined over the prior five weeks and the global oil benchmark rose by about 60%.
At a Friday investor summit, Trump said, “I thought oil prices were going to go up higher than they are now,” adding, “And I thought that we would see a bigger drop in stock. It hasn’t been that bad.” The White House, the AP reported, has largely avoided more direct economic messaging to voters about the consequences of the war, choosing instead to try to contain damage in markets that it sees as a way to reach voters indirectly.
That strategy surfaced publicly on Monday, when Trump wrote on social media that “great progress” had been achieved on peace talks with Iran while also threatening civilian infrastructure such as desalination plants if a deal was not reached “shortly.” The AP reported that White House officials view the stock, energy and bond markets as a channel to bolster Trump’s broader economic agenda, including cheaper gasoline, gains in 401(k) accounts and lower mortgage rates.
Critics say the market-jawboning approach has not closed the gap between expectations and the reality that households are paying higher prices. Gene Sperling, a top economic adviser in the Democratic Clinton, Obama and Biden administrations, said voters can connect pump prices to Trump’s decision to attack Iran, arguing that telling markets to calm down is not enough for people facing rising gasoline costs.
Sperling said the president’s approach amounts to “simplistic jawboning” and added that advisers would argue Trump needs to speak directly to Americans, acknowledge the economic pain his policy has caused quickly, and explain why national security concerns justify it. He said that instead, “you have a strategy of not recognizing or even dismissing people’s economic pain.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt characterized oil price increases as a “short-term fluctuation” on Monday. But Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at Yale University’s School of Management and co-author of “Trump’s Ten Commandments: Strategic Lessons from the Trump Leadership Toolbox,” said Trump’s mixed signals are working against him because they collide with how markets price risk over time.
Sonnenfeld said, “The uncertainty is now soaring,” and warned that as messaging to calm markets with reassurances has diminishing credibility, Trump has “diminished public confidence” as well. The AP reported that Trump’s desire to preserve flexibility on the war has limited his ability to offer sustained clarity, resulting in statements that pull in different directions as the conflict evolves.
During a Cabinet meeting Thursday, Trump said Iran was “begging” for a deal while also threatening further military action. After the markets closed on Friday, he extended his deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping waterway, saying he would hold off on bombing Iran’s energy plants in the meantime.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking Monday on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends,” said Iran was letting some tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and that the “market is well supplied” because countries were releasing strategic petroleum reserves and sanctions had been removed for Russian and Iranian oil already on tankers. Bessent said, “We are seeing more and more ships go through on a daily basis as individual countries cut deals with the Iranian regime for the time being,” and predicted, “But over time, the U.S. is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through U.S. escorts or a multinational escort.”
Graham Steele, a Biden-era Treasury official, said Trump’s messaging techniques “can work temporarily, but they have diminishing returns, over time,” if they are detached from policy and results. He said the initial volatile market reactions followed announcements that were later walked back, but that the market reaction had turned into a “steady trend upward in prices” that, he said, markets were no longer responding to in the same way.
As sentiment shifts, consumer confidence data have reflected the strain tied to the conflict’s economic spillover. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Friday fell to 53.3 in March, its lowest level since December, and Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers, pointed to financial market volatility “in the wake of the Iran conflict” as reducing confidence among households with middle and higher incomes.
Hsu said the survey suggested people did not expect the higher energy costs and stock market declines to persist, while warning that expectations could change if the war “becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation.” Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services, said low sentiment levels do not automatically signal a recession, but added that consumers would need to see lower gas prices, a steadier stock market and decreased mortgage rates—along with a more definitive resolution to the conflict—before they would feel better, rather than repeated pronouncements.
“The proof is in the pudding,” Faucher said. “People need to see some substantive improvements before they feel better about conditions.”