U.S. consumer confidence inched higher in March despite soaring energy prices tied to the war in Iran, according to the Conference Board. The organization said its index rose modestly to 91.8 from 91 in February, a move that still left important parts of the survey turning more cautious. While the topline reading held steady in the face of higher costs, the board said consumers’ views shifted in other measures, including inflation expectations.
The Conference Board said rising costs due to tariffs and spiking oil prices from the conflict did not change the overall confidence figure. It reported that respondents’ comments about oil and gas and the war increased sharply in the survey, and that consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations jumped to levels last seen in August 2025, when anxiety about tariffs peaked.
At the same time, the survey’s measure of short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the job market declined. That component fell 1.7 points to 70.9, the Conference Board said, and it remained well below 80—an indicator the report cited as a potential signal of recession ahead. The board said it marked the 14th consecutive month with that reading under 80.
The Conference Board also reported movement in other parts of the consumer data. It said the index for consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation rose 4.6 points to 123.3, while it pointed to a stronger baseline for how people viewed the economy at present compared with their outlook. It also said expectations related to buying cars continued to rise in March, with used cars a clear preference.
Gasoline prices were among the factors weighing on households as the survey was taken. The report said U.S. gas prices jumped past $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, with AAA putting the national average for regular gasoline at $4.02 on Tuesday—up more than a dollar from before the war began. In that context, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote that as the war in Iran entered its second month, the key question was whether the oil-price shock would become a demand-destruction shock.
Long said Navy Federal’s credit card data from March showed consumers were still making purchases across categories even as gas prices rose, but she said that could change in the second quarter “as the worst of the inflation shock hits consumers.” The Conference Board report aligned with that caution by describing how inflation expectations moved higher even as the topline confidence index increased.
The Conference Board said the labor and pricing backdrop also contributed to uncertainty. It pointed to February employment weakness, saying the Labor Department reported employers cut 92,000 jobs in February, compared with economists’ expectation of 60,000 new jobs; it also said the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Another report cited by the Conference Board said job openings fell slightly in February to 6.9 million from 7.2 million in January.
The survey’s direction also intersected with interest-rate expectations. The report said higher consumer and wholesale prices remained elevated and that the prospect of even higher inflation tied to the Iran war made it unlikely the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. It noted the Fed had cut its benchmark interest rate three times to end 2025 but said the central bank has kept its overnight lending rate unchanged at its past two meetings, citing inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
In addition to inflation and employment signals, the Conference Board said consumer plans showed uneven momentum. It reported that homebuying expectations fell in March as the spring buying season began during a yearslong housing market slump, while it said expectations for stock prices one year from now plunged.