DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — One month into the war involving Iran, the United States and Israel, the conflict has taken on the shape of a contest over endurance and leverage, an Associated Press analysis said. Instead of a straightforward battle against a conventional military force, AP described Iran as waging a campaign that more closely resembles insurgent tactics—using increasingly limited resources to inflict maximum pain while it aims to outlast sustained airstrikes.
AP said Iran’s biggest strategic advantage centers on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf where a fifth of oil and natural gas once passed. In the analysis, Iran retains influence over which shipments move through the waterway and at what prices, meaning the strait’s flow of traffic—and the flow of oil—can be constrained even as the campaign pounds Iran’s conventional capabilities.
The analysis said the impact has spread beyond the region because the global market prices oil internationally and because oil is embedded in manufacturing and transport. AP tied the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck to oil prices “skyrocket[ing],” stock markets “to plunge,” and the cost of basic goods rising, putting pressure on President Donald Trump as he navigates the political calendar ahead of midterm elections in November.
AP also described a potential escalation dilemma facing Washington and Jerusalem: if diplomacy fails, the U.S. and Israel would either need to decide they have achieved enough and end the war or “dramatically escalate” to force the strait open. In that scenario, AP reported, Trump has ordered thousands more paratroopers and Marines into the region and set a new deadline—already delayed twice—of 8 p.m. Eastern time April 6 for Iran to reopen the strait, threatening to begin bombing power plants in Iran if it does not.
The analysis said Iran has responded to the intensified pressure by preserving ways to strike despite damage. While AP cited Trump as saying about 9% of Iran’s missile arsenal remains—adding that the figure could not be independently verified—AP said Iran still has options to “wreak havoc” even with aircraft broadly destroyed and air defenses hit hard. AP pointed to Iran’s network of air and sea bases, including older installations and newer underground bases, along with mobile launchers it can keep moving to avoid airstrikes.
AP said some launch sites can be hidden until the last minute, including missile launchers disguised as commercial trucks. It described the strategy—“shoot and scoot”—as a mainstay of insurgent groups, pointing to Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq as examples of forces that have used similar tactics to disrupt shipping or hit U.S. troops while enduring repeated targeting.
The AP analysis also argued that geography and terrain help Iran replicate an insurgent posture. It described Iran as mountainous—comparing it to the size of Alaska—and said that landscape gives it “space and features” to hide like an insurgent force, complicating efforts to locate and neutralize launching positions.
At the same time, AP said Tehran faces risks at home that could grow if the war drags on. AP reported that both American and Israeli leaders have said they hope Iranians will eventually take over the government after nationwide protests in January, but it said there have been no signs of such an uprising, with many Iranians sheltering from airstrikes. AP also recalled an earlier crackdown earlier this year that it said killed thousands and detained tens of thousands.
AP further reported that the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force remains active despite repeated targeting, and it cited social media videos showing Basij fighters roaming streets and loudspeakers broadcasting propaganda. It said Guard official Rahim Nade-Ali told authorities that Basij recruitment has begun for children as young as 12, describing it as responding to public demand while also providing manpower as checkpoints come under attack.
Finally, the analysis said questions remain about Iran’s leadership and command structure. AP reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, has not been seen publicly and that U.S. officials say he has been wounded in the war. It said the Guard and other military units appear to be operating without central command, and it warned that any ceasefire deal that does not satisfy the Guard and hard-liners could fracture Iran’s political leadership.
The AP analysis included skepticism about the idea that overwhelming military pressure alone will bring Iran to the negotiating table. It quoted the New York-based Soufan Center, saying Washington seems to believe that such power will force Iran to talks, but adding that the U.S. cannot expect to gain in peace what it was not able to take in war.
And in describing what Iran may be trying to achieve, AP quoted Mideast security analyst Shukriya Bradost as writing that the Islamic Republic cannot defeat the United States militarily and therefore seeks “Survive the war long enough to claim victory.”