Russia and Ukraine have both escalated air and ground pressure as the war enters its fifth year, intensifying a conflict that Europe has kept at the center of its foreign policy—even as a wider U.S. and global focus has shifted toward the Iran war.
The Associated Press reported that Russia fired almost 1,000 drones and 34 missiles at Ukraine on Tuesday, describing it as one of the war’s biggest bombardments. The next day, Ukraine launched almost 400 drones in what AP described as the largest overnight attack on Russian regions and Crimea.
Ukrainian and outside analysts said the spring buildup reflects improved conditions after a relative winter lull on parts of the front. Elina Beketova, of the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Russia is in an early phase of a spring offensive and that Russian forces have intensified pressure “on the battlefield and in the air” in recent weeks, AP reported. In Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region—long targeted in Moscow’s war aims—Beketova said the situation was “critical,” while Ukrainian troops said they were holding firm.
Robert Murrett, a retired vice admiral in the U.S. Navy who is deputy director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Security Policy and Law, said Russia was pursuing “new approaches” on the tactical level, including mechanized infantry and armor. Murrett also described how U.S.-mediated talks have struggled as the White House’s attention has been pulled by Iran, saying Washington was largely “totally distracted by Iran” and that months of U.S.-mediated negotiations had produced no breakthrough.
In parallel, experts said fighting remains linked to a broader pattern of strikes and counterstrikes, with Russian attacks continuing to hit civilian areas after earlier waves that targeted Ukraine’s power grid. AP reported that more than 15,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the war, citing the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has continued to develop long-range drones and missiles to strike targets in rear areas, including oil refineries, chemical plants, ammunition depots and military logistics hubs up to 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) from Ukraine.
The diplomatic and logistical pressures on both sides also intersect with U.S. policy decisions tied to the Iran war. AP reported that the Trump administration has wound down talks with Russian and Ukrainian delegations as the Iran war grips attention, warning it could turn its back on the conflict if peace efforts fail. It also reported that Russia has rejected Ukraine’s offer of a ceasefire, and that European leaders have accused President Vladimir Putin of stalling while Russian forces seek to capture more Ukrainian territory.
Sanctions relief tied to oil has added another layer of pressure. AP reported that Russia has been “raking in billions of dollars” after the U.S. eased oil sanctions via a temporary waiver, a measure taken earlier this month that aims to free up Russian oil cargo stranded at sea and ease supply shortages linked to the Middle East conflict. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the U.S. move was “not the right decision,” arguing it would further enable Russia’s military campaign.
Zelenskyy also warned that the reallocation of U.S. air-defense resources toward the Middle East could leave Ukraine short of critical systems. AP reported that American Patriot air-defense missiles have been moved from Europe toward the Middle East as Washington redirects resources to its war on Iran, and that Zelenskyy said Kyiv would “definitely” face shortages because of that shift. He cited U.S. production figures—saying the U.S. produces 60 to 65 missiles per month, or about 700 to 800 missiles per year—and pointed to usage in the first day of the Middle East war, adding that “803 missiles were used,” AP reported.
On battlefield planning, AP reported that fighting along a roughly 1,250-kilometer (750-mile) line remains intense across eastern and southern Ukraine, as fields dry and Russia prepares for a summer fighting season. Beketova said Russia’s spring effort is concentrated on assaulting the eastern “Fortress Belt” of cities. Russian tactics, AP said, often involve surrounding and then choking cities while bombing them to rubble, while Russian war bloggers expect additional efforts in areas such as southern Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk—moves that could set up further pressure toward regional capital cities and key industrial centers.
Ukraine’s ability to sustain the war has also run into funding constraints. AP reported that a promised 90-billion-euro ($104-billion) loan from the European Union to fund Ukraine’s armed forces and its war-shattered economy for the next two years is being held up by Hungary. In a separate effort to gain leverage, Zelenskyy offered Ukraine’s battle-tested technology to help Gulf states fend off Iranian drones, while seeking more of the high-end air-defense missiles that Gulf countries possess and that Kyiv says it needs to counter Russia’s missile and drone campaign.