Trump promises bigger GOP majorities as warning signs flash for party

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President Donald Trump told Republicans they can expect bigger congressional majorities after the November midterm elections, even as warning signs have begun to show across the party and in the country’s day-to-day costs. Trump made the prediction during a fundraising speech Wednesday night at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s annual dinner in Washington. He framed the moment as a campaign sprint that would culminate in House and Senate gains, while also acknowledging that incumbent presidents typically lose seats during midterms.

Before Trump spoke, House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled that the GOP’s political fortunes would rise or fall with Trump, presenting him with what Johnson called “the very first America First award.” Trump acknowledged the “long odds” of the midterm cycle, then repeatedly said Republicans were going to fight through November. In the same remarks, he said, “From now until November, we’re going to fight,” and added, “We’ll have bigger majorities in the House and Senate than we do today.”

The dinner took place as Republicans faced setbacks tied to both the war in Iran and affordability concerns. One recent development came from Trump’s political base: Democrat Emily Gregory won a Florida special election to flip a state legislative district that includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach. Against that backdrop, Trump used the evening to rally his party’s candidates heading toward the fall.

Trump’s comments on Iran leaned on an assertion that the United States was succeeding in the conflict even as economic and day-to-day pressures persisted. He told the audience that the U.S. “is winning so big” in the war in Iran, while focusing on record-high stock markets and the idea that the gas-price impact would fade. He also said the attack was necessary, arguing, “We had to cut out the cancer,” and adding, “The cancer was Iran with a nuclear weapon, and we’ve cut it out.”

Several lawmakers at the dinner and afterward suggested that voters’ concerns extend beyond military messaging. Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said constituents were asking about the path forward in Iran and whether Trump would deploy troops there. Murkowski said, “There’s a lot that people want to know, so whether it’s how it’s being communicated in the media, or how it’s being communicated here in the Congress, I think it’s lacking right now.”

Trump’s economic framing met a different reality on the ground. The AP reported that gas prices had risen from $3.12 a gallon when President Joe Biden left office to just under $3 before the U.S. and Israel launched their war in Iran on Feb. 28, with today’s average at $3.98 a gallon according to AAA. The AP also said inflation expectations have become a concern for households amid higher gas costs, higher borrowing costs and a labor-market slowdown, and cited a poll showing 59% of Americans said the Iran military strikes have been excessive and 45% said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about affording gas in the next few months.

Another political headache feeding into the midterm environment has been the ongoing partial federal shutdown and its effect on travel. The AP reported that the shutdown had dragged on for five weeks, sparking chaos at some top airports. In one response, the White House blamed congressional Democrats for blocking funding for the Department of Homeland Security as they pressed for restrictions on enhanced immigration enforcement operations, while a coalition of Republicans said the public was tired of shutdown-related disruptions.

At an airport news conference, Rep. Mark Alford of Missouri told reporters, “The American people are tired of the chaos. They’re tired of the excuses. And they’re tired of watching Washington fail,” linking the disruptions to congressional Democrats and the shutdown. Trump, who did not directly address negotiations to fund the department, also laid blame on Democrats for an impasse that, according to the AP, has forced airport security and other employees to work without paychecks. Trump said, “They don’t want to settle. They want chaos.”

Some Republicans urged patience rather than treating Iran and gas-price effects as immediate electoral damage. Rep. Nick LaLota of New York said voters in his Long Island district were concerned about affordability and safety, but he also said the war in Iran meant “the president is right to think about America’s long-term security.” LaLota said the situation could bolster conservatives’ national-security approach if the U.S. stopped Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, similarly argued that it was too early to jump to political conclusions, and he said, “If we’re still at this stage in the war in the fall, then I’ll talk to you about that,” adding that he believed Trump’s assurances about the conflict being short.

At the dinner itself, the committee head emphasized fundraising as a measure of campaign strength. Hudson said the event had raised $37 million, which he described as bolstering record fundraising for the House Republican campaign committee. Trump echoed that message, boasting about funds raised and telling attendees, “I think we’re going to have a great election,” as he rallied support for GOP candidates facing multiple sources of voter anxiety heading toward November.