Slovenia’s governing Freedom Movement and opposition right-wing populists were locked in a near tie after the State Election Commission counted nearly all ballots in a parliamentary election that sharper divisions among voters into an uncertain outcome for the small European Union country, the Associated Press reported. With about 99% of votes tallied, the commission put Prime Minister Robert Golob’s center-left party at 28.5%, just ahead of the Slovenian Democratic Party, or SDS, led by ex-premier Janez Jansa at 28.1%.
The practically equal vote means none of Slovenia’s main parties is poised to control the 90-seat parliament outright, setting up negotiations in which smaller parties are expected to play a decisive role. It was not immediately clear, the AP said, what shape the possible alliances would take once the preliminary result hardens into a final distribution of seats.
After the preliminary results were released, Golob told reporters that he was confident his party would form the next government, while also acknowledging the political bargaining ahead. He said that “tough negotiations lie ahead,” and added: “In the next term, we will do everything we can to ensure a better future,” before continuing, “We can look forward to moving ahead, into the future, under a free sun.”
Jansa, by contrast, predicted instability after the ballot. He said: “there will not be much (political) stability” after the election, according to the AP report, as the result becomes a test of whether Slovenia stays on its liberal path or swings to the right.
The election also came against a backdrop of allegations of election interference and alleged corruption tied to a campaign controversy that, the AP said, involved claims made by a group of activists and journalists about secret video recordings. Authorities opened a probe into allegations that Jansa’s party and a private foreign agency were connected to the recordings, the AP reported.
Jansa acknowledged having contacts with an adviser from Black Cube but denied the allegations of election interference, according to the AP. Black Cube did not respond to requests for comment, and the report said the company is run by two former Israeli intelligence agents and has been involved in controversies, including an undercover operation on behalf of film mogul Harvey Weinstein to discredit Weinstein’s accusers. Black Cube has said that all its activities are legal and ethical, the AP added.
The close result puts Slovenia’s next political direction at the mercy of coalition math. AP reported that Golob’s government has been a strong liberal voice within the 27-nation European Union, while Jansa is described as a populist-style politician and a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—an alignment that could strengthen Europe’s right-wing blocs if it translated into policy influence in Slovenia.
On foreign policy, the AP said Golob’s government took a strongly pro-Palestinian stance, recognizing a Palestinian state in 2024 and banning top Israeli officials from entry. It said Jansa is pro-Israel and has strongly criticized Palestinian recognition, adding to the sense that the election outcome reflects deep divisions among Slovenia’s roughly 1.7 million eligible voters.
The AP said Slovenia has repeatedly shifted between the two political blocs since breaking away from the former Yugoslavia in 1991, and that the country later joined NATO and the European Union in 2004.