Italy’s judicial reform referendum tests Meloni as vote nears end

Italy’s conservative Premier Giorgia Meloni is facing what supporters and critics alike describe as a pivotal test as a two-day referendum on judicial reform moves toward its end, with recent polls indicating a tight race between “Yes” and “No” voters. The vote, which began Sunday, was initially presented as a technical overhaul of the justice system but has increasingly become a broader judgment on Meloni’s leadership at home and abroad, center-left opponents said they will use the ballot to rally under a unified message against the reform.

As the referendum has drawn attention to Meloni’s political standing, turnout has also become part of the drama. After 12 hours of voting on the first day, Italy’s Interior Ministry said turnout topped 38% of eligible voters, described by the Associated Press as the highest such level recorded at the same point for any two-day referendum.

Political analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco, a polling expert at YouTrend, told the Associated Press that a rejection of the reform would carry significant political weight. He said a possible “No” victory would send a political signal that could weaken Meloni’s “aura of invincibility” and push the center-left to argue that “there is already an alternative in the country.”

For Meloni and her allies, the referendum strategy shifted as the vote neared. The AP report said Meloni initially avoided linking her image too closely to the referendum, but later embraced the “Yes” campaign as polls tightened. The campaign has sharpened the rhetoric, including warnings that if the reform fails, it would strengthen “unaccountable judicial ‘factions’” and endanger public safety, the report said.

At a campaign event, Meloni warned that if the reform does not pass “this time,” she said there would “probably not” be another chance. She also argued that rejection would lead to “even more powerful factions” and “more negligent judges,” and she said the consequences would include “immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk,” according to the Associated Press report.

Opponents, including magistrates and the center-left, argue the reforms would erode judicial independence and undermine constitutional guarantees. In central Rome, Giovanna Antongini, 89, told the AP she was voting “no,” saying she believed the government had organized the referendum “that serves no purpose other than its own,” and she said the measure should not go ahead.

The referendum centers on long-debated changes aimed at reshaping the structure of Italy’s judiciary. One key measure would separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors, preventing them from switching roles—an arrangement the AP report said is currently allowed but rarely practiced. The reform also targets the High Judicial Council, which oversees magistrates’ appointments and disciplinary matters.

Under the proposal, the AP said the High Judicial Council would be split into three separate chambers and its member selection process would change, replacing internal elections with selections by lottery from eligible judges and prosecutors. Supporters argue the changes would modernize an infamously slow court system and enhance accountability, while critics say the reform misses what they consider the real priorities and instead threatens the judiciary’s independence.

The clash between Italy’s right-wing leaders and magistrates has repeatedly marked Italian politics, including during the governments of late conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who was among the reform’s staunchest supporters, according to the AP report. Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and an anti-Mafia magistrate, offered one of the most pointed rebukes, telling the Associated Press that he did not believe the government had implemented reforms needed to make trials work more effectively.

Gratteri said that, instead of improving court processes, the government had made it “virtually impossible” to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption, the AP reported. As Italians continue voting, the referendum is being treated as one of the defining moments of Meloni’s premiership, with supporters and opponents casting the outcome as capable of reshaping both the justice system and Meloni’s political trajectory, regardless of how people vote.