Ukraine’s position is becoming harder as the United States and other Western governments grapple with the war in the Middle East, leaving Russia more room to plan for intensified action against Kyiv, according to reporting and analysts. With U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold because of the Iran conflict, Moscow is expected to push for further military gains in ways that could increase pressure on Ukrainian defenses, now entering its fifth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The prospect is tied, in part, to concerns that the Iran war is draining U.S. air-defense assets and diverting attention during a key planning window. The reporting also pointed to windfall revenues for Moscow from surging global oil prices as money flowing into the Kremlin’s war effort, while attacks tied to the Iran conflict affect the Gulf region.
European allies have continued to signal support for Ukraine, but disagreements inside the alliance about how to finance Kyiv’s military and economic needs have surfaced alongside the wider Middle East crisis. The reporting described “continuous bickering” over a major European Union loan—90 billion euros ($106 billion)—that is intended to cover Ukraine for two years, a dispute framed as reflecting the mounting challenges facing European governments.
A separate fault line is emerging between the United States and its NATO partners over responsibilities in the Gulf. President Donald Trump criticized allies for refusing to commit naval assets to help restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, an issue that the reporting said could reverberate for Ukraine as it depends on allied cohesion.
The gap between Ukraine and Washington also showed in Trump’s reaction to Zelenskyy’s offer of help against Iranian Shahed drones. Zelenskyy sent “over 200 military experts” to the Gulf to share expertise in drone defense, but Trump dismissed the offer, saying the U.S. does not need Kyiv’s assistance. The reporting described this as one example of how Western divisions around the Middle East could spill over into the Russia-Ukraine war.
As signs of disagreement in Western alliances emerge, Putin and his generals are weighing plans for the spring and summer campaign across a front line described as more than 1,200 kilometers (about 750 miles). In the same reporting, Russia’s military appeared to be preparing a renewed push to seize the part of Russia-backed forces that remains under Ukraine’s control in eastern Donetsk, alongside possible offensives in several other sectors.
The Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, said Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks. ISW also said Ukraine’s counterattacks and “successful retaliation” in the Dnipropetrovsk region are likely to force Russia to “choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere” on the front, potentially disrupting the expected Russian push.
Ukraine has also tried to interfere with the buildup through its own actions in areas where Russia has sought bridgeheads, including the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. ISW said Ukrainian forces have stepped up midrange strikes aimed at Russian logistics, military equipment and manpower, describing those strikes as part of an effort to derail the anticipated offensive and undermine the supplies needed for renewed attacks.
Russian war bloggers warn that Moscow would need a drastic bolstering of forces to carry out any major offensive, raising concerns for the Kremlin about the practical obstacles to moving from preparation into a full-scale new push. The reporting also linked the change in approach to Russia’s recruitment patterns over the course of the war: after early reliance on a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists prompted mass flight to avoid being drafted, the Russian military has increasingly relied on volunteers and recruiting foreign fighters attracted by wages and other benefits.
In its strategic context, the reporting described how the war shifted from rapid maneuvers at the start of Russia’s 2022 invasion to a “slow war of attrition,” characterized by grinding battles in ruined towns and villages in eastern Ukraine and constrained by ubiquitous drones that limit large troop concentrations. It also said Russia has relied on long-range missiles and drones to strike Ukraine’s energy facilities and other infrastructure, including through attacks that officials and analysts say have helped erode Ukrainian defensive positions.
Royal United Services Institute analyst Jack Watling told the reporting that Russia has been able to infiltrate and undermine Ukrainian defensive positions due to the “growing lethality” of Moscow’s attacks and Kyiv’s dwindling troop strength. Watling added that Russia is “likely able to maintain its current rate of recruitment, despite the punishing rate of casualties” inflicted by Ukraine.
Russia has also looked to enlist students into newly formed Drone Forces, offering relatively high pay and deployment at a safer distance from the front, according to the reporting. Separately, Tulsi Gabbard, director of national intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that “Russia has maintained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine,” and said U.S.-led talks between Ukraine and Russia “are ongoing. Until such an agreement is met, Moscow is likely to continue fighting a slow war of attrition until they view their objectives have been achieved.”
Negotiations have produced no visible breakthrough because the sides remain divided on key issues. The reporting said Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the four regions Russia has illegally annexed but never fully captured, renounce Kyiv’s bid to join NATO, sharply cut its army, and drop restrictions against Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church—demands Zelenskyy has rejected.
Zelenskyy, by contrast, called for a ceasefire, U.S.-backed security guarantees to prevent Moscow invading again, and rejected claims over Ukrainian territory. The reporting said Kyiv’s European allies accuse Moscow of dragging out talks in hopes of making additional gains and insisted that Europe must be present at negotiations, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the idea of European participation, saying “we don’t consider it necessary or expedient.”
The reporting also described a separate dispute over monitoring: Moscow said it will not allow European troops to monitor a prospective ceasefire and would view them as legitimate targets. Zelenskyy said he sent a team of negotiators to the U.S. on Saturday, while Peskov said Russia would not join them and added that the time and venue for another round of trilateral negotiations have not been set yet.
In commentary, King’s College London professor Sam Greene said Moscow’s strategy was “obvious,” describing it as engaging with Washington “just enough to prevent Ukraine from getting what it needed to shift the balance on the ground, and just enough to keep the Europeans at bay, but not enough to make real progress.” The reporting framed Greene’s view as a way to explain why talks remain stalled even as both sides prepare for military action.
On the U.S. side, the reporting said the administration granted Moscow a temporary waiver from oil sanctions, allowing sales of Russian crude already at sea, which Kyiv and European governments have dismayed. It also said Trump has cast Zelenskyy as an obstacle to peace, telling NBC News earlier this month that reaching a deal is “much harder to reach a deal with Zelenskyy,” and said in a separate interview with Fox News Radio that “No, we don’t need their help on drone defense” when Zelenskyy proposed assistance to protect U.S. forces and allies in the Gulf from Iranian drones. Zelenskyy has described the Middle East conflict as likely to affect Ukraine’s war effort, telling the BBC that he had a “very bad feeling” about the impact of the conflict and warning that peace negotiations are being “constantly postponed” while Russia profits from high oil prices and Ukraine could face a deficit of U.S.-made Patriot missiles.