Fertilizer prices have surged for U.S. farmers since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, with many producers now weighing whether they can afford key inputs or secure enough supplies for the spring growing season.
Tennessee farmer Todd Littleton, a third-generation grower in Gibson County, said he expects to pay $100,000 more for fertilizer this season—a 40% increase from his bill last year—adding that the jump comes as many farms are already stretched after prior record losses. “The problem is, is we’re so strained financially coming into this issue,” Littleton said. “We have had a couple of record losses the last couple years, so everyone’s kind of grabbing at straws anyway, and then to have input prices increase yet again, it just really couldn’t happen at a worse time.” He grows corn, soybeans and wheat.
Littleton described how the fertilizer cost pressure feeds back into farm planning, including how higher fertilizer-related expenses stack against other tight margins. For him, and for others, nitrogen-based fertilizer is central: it is especially vital for corn, the largest U.S. crop and a key feed source for livestock, while nitrogen fertilizer also supports fuel production as part of the broader energy and transportation supply chain.
Farmers’ complaints about fertilizer costs were not new, but the latest spike has coincided with the Iran war, which has slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas. The disruption has raised fuel costs used in fertilizer production and has also limited exports of nitrogen fertilizers manufactured in the Persian Gulf. The American Farm Bureau Federation said about 15% of fertilizer imports to the United States come from the Middle East, and that about half of the global supply of urea—along with 30% of ammonia—comes from the region.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said the situation could worsen for some producers. He warned that farmers who did not preorder and pay for fertilizer in advance may not obtain the fertilizer they need during the season or for spring planting, calling the circumstance “so serious.” Harry Ott, who leads the South Carolina Farm Bureau and farms cotton, corn and peanuts, said there is not enough fertilizer stockpiled in warehouses to meet demand in the coming months.
Experts said the United States may not see a quick fix even if the war ends. Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply economist for CoBank, said the conflict has added to supply issues already driven by other disruptions, including the war between Ukraine and Russia and China’s phosphate export cutbacks. Fatka said the latest factors are layered onto those constraints and that “There’s going to be a tail to this that’s going to take time to get everything turned back on, sent back out,” describing how long it can take to restart shipments and flows. Nancy Martinez of the National Corn Growers Association said the situation has uncertainty and that “We don’t quite know how it’s going to shake out.”
Part of that timeline is the lead time for shipments: experts said deliveries from the Middle East to the United States typically take 30 to 45 days to reach the Port of New Orleans. Even so, some fertilizer is already stored in the U.S. and can cover near-term demand, but those inventories are expected to run low if Middle East imports remain constrained.
Other experts also tied fertilizer pricing to energy and domestic production costs. Anne Villamil, a University of Iowa professor of economics, said nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers are largely produced domestically, which helps “a little bit,” but she added that energy prices are still an input. Chad Hart, an Iowa State University economics professor, said soaring oil prices could increase food prices by raising diesel costs for transport and petroleum costs for packaging, while he said the fertilizer price increases should not significantly lead to grocery store increases because on-farm costs are only a small portion of what consumers pay at supermarkets.
The Trump administration said it has taken steps to ease fertilizer costs, including moving to increase fertilizer imports from Venezuela, which U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins called “a huge step that puts farm security and farmers first.” The Department of Agriculture also pointed to $12 billion in one-time payments meant to help farmers offset losses, primarily due to tariffs, and said it provided more than $30 billion in additional aid to farmers since January 2025. The USDA said it also is supporting a more competitive fertilizer marketplace it expects will lower prices over time.
CoBank’s Fatka said the $12 billion does not go far, noting a payment level of $44 per corn acre while the USDA estimates about $900 per acre for cost of production for the average U.S. farmer. Even so, the article said farm bankruptcies remain rare, with 315 last year out of nearly 1.9 million farms nationally, while prices for the nation’s two largest crops—corn and soybeans—have been climbing recently.
For some producers, the core challenge remains how to sustain operations when fertilizer costs rise and other costs do not fall. Tom Waters, who farms about 5,000 acres east of Kansas City and grows corn, soybeans and wheat, said the combination of fertilizer price increases with other expenses makes profitability difficult when crop prices are low. “The margins get smaller and smaller so we just have to really work hard to trim our costs and be as frugal as we can be but still provide the soil and crop what it needs to grow and produce,” Waters said.