Dozens of ships slip through Strait of Hormuz as Iran exports oil

Body

About 90 ships, including oil tankers, have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the war with Iran began, even as most shipping traffic through the chokepoint has been halted since early March. Maritime and trade data platforms cited by The Associated Press show that the waterway has operated selectively for some vessels while being effectively shut for much of the rest of global shipping.

The reduced flow matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a corridor for global oil and gas shipments that supplies roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil. AP reported that about 20 vessels have been attacked in the area since early March, and crude prices have climbed more than 40% to above $100 a barrel.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence said at least 89 ships crossed the strait between March 1 and 15, including 16 oil tankers, compared with roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war. The firm said more than one-fifth of the 89 vessels were believed to be Iran-affiliated, while other passages included ships tied to China and Greece.

Several of the early transits were described as “dark” voyages that evaded Western government sanctions and oversight. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said many of those vessels likely had ties to Iran, and it said more recent passages also involved vessels with ties to India and Pakistan as governments stepped up negotiations.

As Iran kept selling oil, Kpler estimated that Iran exported well above 16 million barrels of oil since the beginning of March. Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic said there has been “continued resilience” in Iran’s oil export volumes, and AP reported that the export data estimates were largely aligned with maritime traffic data.

Kpler and other analysts also pointed to the customer shift driven by sanctions risk. AP reported that China has been the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, and Kpler’s coverage emphasized that Western sanctions and related risks pushed buyers toward specific supply routes.

Other company and port-level reporting gave examples of non-Iranian flagged vessels that still moved through the strait. Lloyd’s List Intelligence said the Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker Karachi, controlled by the Pakistan National Shipping Corp., passed through the strait on Sunday, and Shariq Amin, a spokesman at the Pakistan Port Trust, said the ship would soon safely reach Pakistan while refusing to confirm or deny which route it used.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence also said two India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas carriers—Shivalik and Nanda Devi, owned by state-owned Shipping Corp. of India—traveled through the strait around March 13 or 14. A separate AP note said India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, told the Financial Times that the vessels were able to pass following talks with Iran, while Iraq was also reported to have been in talks with Iran to allow Iraqi oil tankers through.

Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade said vessels may be transiting “with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” and AP reported that analyst Kun Cao of consulting firm Reddal said Iran has profited from oil sales while also “preserve its own export artery” by using control over the chokepoint.

While the U.S. pressed allies to help reopen the strait, AP reported that the U.S. also took steps aimed at keeping some Iranian crude moving. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC, “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” in comments AP attributed to an interview on Monday.

AP said the U.S. bombed military sites on Kharg Island, off Iran’s coast, which is key to Iran’s oil network and exports, but that President Donald Trump said he had left its oil infrastructure alone for now. Iran has also threatened it won’t allow “even a single liter of oil” destined for the U.S., and Israel and their allies, to pass through.

Analysts said the pattern should be understood as “closed selectively” rather than simply closed to all traffic. Cao told AP the strait is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements, and he said some ships near or in the strait were identified as presenting themselves as China-linked, including some with all-Chinese crew, to reduce attack risks.

Even so, a Dutch bank research note cited by AP said if Iran’s plan is to “inflict pain through higher energy prices,” the number of tankers it allows through the Strait of Hormuz may be limited.