Cornyn and Paxton will both be on the ballot for Texas’ Republican Senate runoff after neither candidate withdrew by the Tuesday deadline, leaving President Donald Trump to decide whom to back in the contest instead of the candidates settling on a single choice. Trump has said he expects to endorse one of the two candidates this week, according to reporting, after he previously promised to back one “soon” and urged the other to drop out “for the good of the Party.” The delay has prolonged a period in Texas Republicans’ internal dispute over the right path into the general election.
A spokesman for Cornyn, Matt Mackowiak, said Tuesday that Cornyn would not step aside, saying “of course not” and that the campaign had “already started our campaign.” On the Paxton side, his spokesman Nick Maddux declined to comment on whether Paxton would withdraw. Instead of stepping back, the campaigns moved closer to a direct contest through new advertising and renewed scrutiny of the other candidate’s record.
The day after the deadline, Cornyn’s campaign ran an ad that highlighted allegations that Paxton had an affair and cited Paxton’s impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House. Paxton denied corruption accusations and was later acquitted, according to the reporting. A separate Cornyn advertisement framed some of the same allegations as Paxton violating the Ten Commandments.
Paxton’s campaign also responded with new attacks. The reporting said Paxton introduced a new attack ad against Cornyn on Friday and is scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Committee’s annual convention later this month. The Paxton-focused ad includes a series of clips highlighting Cornyn’s past critiques of Trump, including over false statements that the 2020 election was stolen, and it frames Paxton as the MAGA-aligned candidate.
Trump told NBC News that he likes “both candidates very much” and believes either could beat the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, in the general election. At the same time, Trump’s endorsements remain an open question for Republicans, as both campaigns have competed for alignment with Trump’s political brand while also trying to build their own support among more conservative voters who are likely to turn out for the runoff.
Cornyn finished slightly ahead of Paxton in the March 3 primary but did not win the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Because runoffs typically draw a more conservative, activist portion of the Republican electorate, campaign strategy is shifting toward targeting smaller groups of voters rather than trying to persuade a broader field. Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Political Project at the University of Texas, Austin, said Cornyn has “always had a weakness with the most conservative voters in the electorate,” but added that Cornyn’s primary campaign appeared to offset at least part of that disadvantage and “illustrate for the Republican primary electorate what kinds of vulnerabilities that Ken Paxton has.”
Veteran Texas Republican strategist Dave Carney said that in a runoff, the advertising and messaging matter less than execution, particularly turnout. Carney said “whoever has good data and knows who their supporters are and turns them out will win,” describing a more concentrated electorate where campaigns use digital advertising and texts to reach and mobilize supporters.