The Houthi rebels in Yemen have largely stayed on the sidelines of a broader conflict that has spread across the Middle East, even as Iran has responded to the United States and Israel with missiles and drones aimed at military bases and other targets in Gulf Arab countries. Those attacks have disrupted shipping routes, constrained fuel supplies, and threatened regional air traffic, the Associated Press reported, adding to pressure on maritime and energy flows.
A key factor behind the speculation over whether the Houthis may eventually join the fighting has been Iran’s internal political signal. The Associated Press reported that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Jamenei, suggested on Thursday—during his first written statement since his father died at the start of the war—that Iran could open new fronts in the conflict. Analysts told the outlet that the statement could be read as a sign that the Houthis might be pulled in.
Even with that prospect, the Associated Press reported that the Houthis have so far been reluctant to enter the fight. Analysts said the hesitation stems in part from concerns about the security of Houthi leaders, fears of divisions within Yemen, and uncertainty over weapons supply. The outlet also reported that the conflict with Iran has made the logistics of getting arms more difficult for the group, while Houthi restraint has contrasted with the intensity of other Iran-backed or allied attacks in the region.
The Associated Press cited Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group as saying that, from Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have shown they can operate as an effective pressure front. Nagi also said the Houthi decision to stay away appears to have been coordinated with Iranian partners. In his assessment, the restraint is not necessarily about a lack of willingness to intervene, but about timing as the broader conflict evolves. “La decisión no se debe a la a la falta de voluntad para intervenir, sino al momento oportuno,” Nagi said, adding, “La estrategia general de Irán parece ser evitar mostrar todas sus cartas de golpe, optando por utilizar a sus socios y sus capacidades gradualmente a medida que el conflicto evoluciona”.
The Associated Press also reported that Houthi political and press officials said their weapons reserves are being depleted after attacks during the Israel-Hamas war, and that the conflict with Iran has further strained their ability to replenish. One official, speaking under anonymity, told the outlet that the group has a large arsenal of drones. Another analyst cited by the Associated Press, including Nagi, said the Houthis appear to be building up forces by recruiting more fighters, using local weapons production, and sending reinforcements to Yemen’s western coast on the Red Sea—steps that, Nagi said, can point to preparation for escalation.
Nagi and other analysts said the Houthis have already demonstrated leverage by targeting energy-related assets, and that Abdulmalik al-Houthi has repeatedly said the group is ready to intervene. Chatham House researcher Farea al-Muslimi told the Associated Press that the Houthis appear to have moved some armaments to different areas of Yemen recently, though he said it was still unclear whether the transfers reflect an escalation plan. Al-Muslimi said, “Algo de armamento ha sido trasladado a diferentes zonas de Yemen recientemente … Aún no está claro si es para una escalada militar”. Another researcher added that while the Houthis appear prepared for war, the precise nature of any participation remains uncertain.
If the Houthis were to join the conflict involving Iran, analysts said their most immediate pressure would likely be aimed at maritime traffic. The Associated Press reported that Nagi said the Houthis probably would resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, while also potentially expanding attacks against Israel. Analysts told the outlet that targeting oil-related shipping would be an especially direct pressure point because maritime transport can quickly affect supply chains for energy. They also said the Houthis could consider striking oil facilities, noting the group has previously attacked oil installations in Saudi Arabia during the long conflict tied to the Saudi-led coalition.
The Associated Press reported that other factors could shape the Houthis’ timing and decision-making, including Yemen’s internal security landscape. Abdel-Bari Taher, a Yemeni political analyst and former head of the press syndicate, said any decision would be affected by conditions inside Yemen, including recent deadly clashes in the south, public opposition in Sana’a to joining the conflict, and heightened caution among Houthi leaders following recent high-profile killings. Taher said, “a pesar de estas limitaciones y de la compleja dinámica interna y regional, la participación de los hutíes en el conflicto sigue siendo una posibilidad”.
In addition, the Associated Press reported that Houthi officials said the United States has sent warnings through Omani mediators not to participate in the war and that Houthi political and security leaders were told their cellphones are being monitored by the United States and Israel. Those officials said the threat of targeted killings has been part of the rationale behind keeping senior leaders from appearing publicly. Even with those constraints, Taher said participation remained possible, while Chatham House analyst al-Muslimi said the Houthis do not have a military compulsion from within Yemen that would force them into the war and that they appear committed to a U.S.-linked ceasefire that Oman negotiated last year.
For now, the Associated Press said the Houthis have limited themselves largely to protests and statements condemning the war involving Iran, in contrast to other waves of missile and drone attacks attributed to groups linked to Iran that have targeted Israel and shipping. The outlet reported that if the Houthis escalate, analysts expect their central aims could include pressuring oil shipments at sea and broadening the region’s disruption, potentially bringing additional targets such as U.S. bases into the range of attacks.
Human translation note for readers: this Associated Press dispatch was reported by Ahmed al-Haj in Aden, Yemen.