Relatively few have fled Iran so far, but experts warn that could change

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KAPIKOY BORDER CROSSING, Turkey — After bombs exploded near her home in Golestan, in eastern Iran, hairdresser Merve Pourkaz decided to leave and head for Turkey, hoping to reach safety in the nearby city of Van. Pourkaz, 32, said she traveled nearly 1,500 kilometers to the alpine border crossing, and she told The Associated Press that if authorities let her enter Turkey, she would stay until the war ends. If the fighting does not stop, she said, “maybe I’ll go back and die.”

Her account is part of a broader picture in which millions of people inside Iran have already been forced to move since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began, even as fewer have crossed international borders so far. The U.N. refugee agency estimates 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced, including those who seek shelter in safer parts of the country and those who return from abroad.

AP reported that relatively few people have chosen to flee to Turkey since the war started, estimating that only about 1,300 Iranians have fled via Turkey each day. On some days, the number of people returning to Iran was reported as greater than the number departing, even as neighbors and Europe prepare for what could become a migration crisis if the war drags on.

The prospect of more departures is not purely hypothetical. The U.N. has warned that continued fighting will likely push more Iranians to flee their homes, and many residents have so far sheltered in place, in part because they lack money to flee and in part because they have been influenced by warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump said, “Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.”

While large numbers have not yet crossed borders, the movement that has occurred has often involved people leaving major cities for the relative safety of the countryside bordering the Caspian Sea north of Tehran, according to the International Organization for Migration. Salvador Gutierrez, chief of the IOM’s mission in Iran, said that “Movement out of Iran appears limited mainly because people are prioritizing staying with their families, as well as the safety of their families and property, and due to security conditions and logistical constraints.”

Some people are also moving in the opposite direction. As Pourkaz entered Turkey, Leila Rabetnezhadfard left Iran, traveling back toward safety for herself and her family after postponing plans to marry in Istanbul when the fighting started. Rabetnezhadfard, 45, said she returned to Shiraz, in southern Iran, and she told AP she would not move her family to Istanbul because her apartment is small, her brother needs medical care, and life would be expensive there.

Analysts warned that the regional migration pressure could rise sharply if essential services fail. The article reported that if Iran’s critical infrastructure is destroyed, it could lead to waves of people trying to cross into neighboring countries including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq. Alex Vatanka, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said, “If Tehran, a city of 10 million people, doesn’t have water, they’re going to go somewhere.”

Turkey’s preparations for a potential influx are shaped by its experience with earlier refugee flows and by a changed stance toward cross-border arrivals. Aid groups said that if the crisis deepens, the most likely destinations for refugees would be Iran’s borders with Iraq and Turkey, which stretch roughly 2,200 kilometers and include rough alpine terrain that is home to many Kurdish communities. Turkey had previously maintained an “open-door policy” that allowed millions of Syrian refugees to enter during the Syrian civil war, but AP reported that Turkey has abandoned that approach.

Instead, Turkey has prepared plans to shelter Iranian refugees in “buffer zones” along the border, or in tent cities or temporary housing inside Turkey, Hurriyet newspaper quoted Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci as saying. Sara Karakoyun, an aid worker with the independent Human Resource Development Foundation near the border, said Iranian refugees are unlikely to seek formal asylum in Turkey because the process might take years. “They don’t want to wait in limbo for years for a refugee status they might not get,” she said.

AP also reported that Turkey’s defense ministry said in January that the country had hardened its border with Iran by adding 380 kilometers of concrete walls, 203 optical towers, and 43 observation posts. Riccardo Gasco, an analyst at the IstanPol Institute, said Turkey would likely send troops to secure the border, tightly control the flow of people into the country, and seek European Union funds to help manage refugees.

Europe’s concern is tied to what the European Union and Turkey negotiated in response to the Syrian refugee crisis more than a decade ago. The relationship was reshaped after nearly two-thirds of the 4.5 million Syrians fleeing the civil war ended up in Turkey, with many later reaching Europe by sea. In 2016, Brussels and Ankara agreed to a migration deal in which the EU offered Turkey incentives and up to 6 billion euros to persuade Ankara to stop tens of thousands of migrants from setting out for Greece.

Renewal of that deal is expected this year, AP reported, but Turkish citizens have soured on Syrian refugees, and anti-immigrant right-wing parties have grown in popularity in parts of Europe. At the same time, the region is facing another displacement situation closer to Europe, with fighting in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah reported to have displaced more than 800,000 people so far.

Ninette Kelley, chair of the World Refugee & Migration Council, told AP that humanitarian agencies face a funding crunch, saying the situation in the Middle East could have “grave humanitarian consequences right at a time where humanitarian funding has been completely slashed,” and pointing to U.S. cuts to USAID.