Jet fuel prices are rising as the Iran war disrupts global oil supply, and airlines are likely to pass some of those costs on to travelers as the busy summer season approaches, experts say. The situation stems from disruptions to oil exports and the broader knock-on effect that volatile crude prices can have on fuel costs across the aviation supply chain. While some carriers can soften sudden price swings through fuel hedging, analysts and industry executives said the protection can be limited and may not cover all of the increases.
The conflict’s effect on oil trading routes has been one of the key drivers, according to the reporting. Iran has attacked commercial ships across the Persian Gulf and targeted oil infrastructure in Gulf Arab nations after U.S. and Israeli strikes, which has effectively halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow passage carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, and when it is disrupted, oil market dynamics can change quickly.
On the prices front, the article cited a sharp jump in the U.S. average jet fuel rate measured by the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index. The index tracked average jet fuel paid by airlines across major U.S. airports and reported that the average reached $3.99 per gallon on Friday, up from $2.50 the day before the war started two weeks earlier. Separate data referenced from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics showed U.S. airlines paid about $2.36 per gallon for fuel in January, the most recent data at the time.
Industry leaders said higher airfares could follow on a time lag as airlines work the changes into their pricing. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said at a Harvard event last week, “probably start quick” as increasing fuel costs work their way through the industry, and he added that the central issue is “not a question of if airfares will go up, but when, for how long and by how much,” according to the report.
Some airlines outside the U.S. have already moved to reduce the impact of higher jet fuel costs. The article said airlines in the Asia-Pacific region were leading fare increases and fuel surcharges so far, and it expected additional carriers—especially those without fuel hedging—to follow if jet fuel prices remain elevated. Cathay Pacific said it would increase its fuel surcharge starting Wednesday, stating in a separate message that “The price of jet fuel has approximately doubled since March amid the latest developments in the Middle East.” Other carriers mentioned in the report included Air France-KLM, Air India, Hong Kong Airlines and FlySafair, each describing either fuel surcharge changes or fare changes tied to long-haul or specific route pricing.
In the U.S., carriers generally do not charge a separate fuel surcharge the way some overseas airlines do, Tyler Hosford said. As security director at International SOS, Hosford told the article that U.S. carriers tend to incorporate higher fuel costs into the overall ticket price, so increases are more likely to appear as higher base fares rather than itemized fuel fees. He also suggested that travelers can look to strategies such as booking earlier and using alerts for price drops while staying flexible.
Airlines also weigh operational factors beyond the commodity cost of jet fuel itself, the report said. It pointed to airspace closures around parts of the Middle East that can require rerouting, potentially increasing flight distances, fuel burn, and operating costs. For longer international flights, that effect can be amplified because long-haul routes burn significantly more fuel than shorter flights.
The article also described the role of hedging in shaping how quickly price shocks translate to fares. Some airlines can partially protect against sudden increases by locking in fuel prices months or even years in advance, but not all carriers hedge. Even among those that do, protection often covers only a portion of fuel needs, which can leave airlines exposed if a prolonged price surge continues.
Fuel costs are a major line item in airline budgets, the report noted, because fuel typically accounts for roughly 20% to 25% of operating costs. That share makes the airline industry especially sensitive to sustained changes in jet fuel prices, particularly if higher costs coincide with strong demand in the summer travel season.
For travelers, the report said the impact may show up in multiple ways even if base fares do not rise immediately. Airlines can add or increase fuel surcharges (common outside the U.S.), adjust what they charge for premium add-ons such as seat upgrades or priority boarding, and potentially alter schedules or reduce certain routes if the higher fuel costs persist. Experts also said travelers planning summer trips may be able to limit the damage by booking earlier and keeping travel dates flexible, with Hosford recommending checking nearby airports and using frequent flyer miles or credit card points rather than waiting for a “perfect deal.” “If you were going to spend cash on the flight but now you’re not, then that’s a good redemption deal,” Hosford said.