Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far remained on the sidelines as the Iran war widens across the Middle East, according to an Associated Press report. The restraint has raised questions about why the group is holding back and whether it might join the fighting later.
The report said Iran has retaliated against the United States and Israel with missiles and drones, targeting American military bases and other locations in Gulf Arab countries. It said the attacks have disrupted trade routes, choked fuel supplies and threatened regional air traffic.
Analysts told AP that Iran’s messaging could be shifting the calculus for the Houthis. Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, suggested on Thursday in his first written statement since succeeding his father—who was killed in the war’s opening salvo—that Iran may open up new fronts in the conflict. Analysts said this is a sign the Houthis may get involved soon.
Until now, AP said, the Houthis have been reluctant to fight, fearing assassinations of their leaders, internal divisions in Yemen and uncertainty over weapons supplies. The report said that may change as Iran seeks to increase pressure on global oil supply routes through potential attacks by the Houthis, who have had previous success targeting oil facilities in the region.
AP cited Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, saying the Houthis’ distance from the conflict appears coordinated with Iran. Nagi told AP, “From Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a capable and effective front, able to generate real pressure.” He said the Houthi leaders’ decision “is a calculated choice that has been fully coordinated with the Iranians.”
Nagi said the Houthis appear to be building up forces by recruiting more fighters, relying on local weapons production and sending reinforcements to Yemen’s western coastline on the Red Sea. “The decision is not about unwillingness to intervene, but about timing,” Nagi said. He added that Iran’s broader strategy seems to avoid “throwing all its cards on the table at once” and instead uses partners and capabilities gradually as the confrontation evolves. Nagi said the Houthis are likely to step in if the conflict widens or if they perceive an existential threat to Iran, such as significant deterioration in military capabilities.
The AP report also described constraints inside the Houthi arsenal. Two Houthi members of the group’s media and political offices told AP—speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media—that the rebels’ weapons stockpile is running low after attacks during the Israel-Hamas war, and that the Iran war has further impeded the flow of weapons. A separate official told AP that the group still has a large stockpile of drones.
While Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi has repeatedly emphasized that the group is ready to intervene, claiming their “hands are on the trigger,” outside analysts said it remains unclear what any involvement would look like. Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, told AP, “Houthis, of course, are always ready for any war,” and added that “Some weaponry moved in different areas inside Yemen recently … but it’s still not clear whether it’s for a military escalation.”
AP said that if the Houthis enter the war, the most likely actions would include resuming attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and striking Israel. Nagi said they could also join Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries by targeting U.S. military assets and interests. The report said attacks on vessels during the Israel-Hamas war upended shipping in the Red Sea, a route that carried about $1 trillion worth of goods each year before the war, and that rebels also fired drones at Israel.
The report said analysts expect the Houthis to prioritize oil tankers if they escalate, because shipping would offer a direct pressure point and could affect energy supply chains. It said attacks on oil installations could also be considered, pointing to the group’s previous strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Nagi said U.S. military sites in the region might also become targets.
On the question of what could trigger participation, AP cited Yemen’s internal situation and fears of targeted violence. Abdel-Bari Taher, a political analyst and former head of the press syndicate in Yemen, said any decision to join the war is impacted by internal conditions, including recent deadly clashes in south Yemen, public opposition in Sanaa to joining the war, and heightened caution among Houthi leaders after high-profile assassinations. Taher said, “Despite these constraints and the complex domestic and regional dynamics, Houthi involvement in the conflict remains a possibility,” in comments cited by AP.
According to AP, two Houthi officials said the U.S. has sent warnings via Omani mediators against participating in the war and that Houthi political and security leaders were alerted that their cellphones are under surveillance by the U.S. and Israel. The officials said that fearing potential Israeli assassinations, Houthi leaders were instructed not to appear in public.
Al-Muslimi told AP that the Houthis do not appear to have the military capabilities or internal Yemeni interest that would force them to join the war, and that the group seems committed to a ceasefire with the U.S. brokered by Oman last year. “They hope to fight, especially with Israel, but they can’t be the ones to fire the first shot,” he said. He added that the Houthis would likely need a local Yemeni cause to join the fighting, and said, “The Houthis are a local group that Iran uses and supports, but didn’t create.”
AP said the Houthis share some political and religious ties with Iran and that the group was armed by Iran when it seized most of Yemen’s north and the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, pushing Yemen’s internationally recognized government into exile. It said a Saudi-led coalition backed Yemen’s government entry the following year and that the Houthis have since fought a long-running civil war with limited resolution.
AP also said the Houthis are independent of Iran’s supreme leader, following a different doctrine of Shiite Islam than Iran’s other regional allies such as Hezbollah and several Iran-backed Iraqi militias. Analysts including Nagi said this independence has not prevented the Houthis from being “a key” component of Iran’s broader influence, and that the current war is unlikely to reduce that role.
While other Iran-allied groups have joined the conflict, AP said, the Houthis have held protests and issued declarations condemning the Iran war rather than launching attacks. The report said Hezbollah resumed strikes on Israel within two days of the attack on Iran, and that militias linked to the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed drone strikes on U.S. bases in Irbil.
Associated Press journalist Ahmed al-Haj in Aden, Yemen, contributed to the report.