After quieter weeks, Taiwan reported a sharp shift in Chinese military activity near the island, saying its defense ministry detected a large presence of aircraft around Taiwan on Saturday. The ministry said it reported the increased activity after a reported decline in Chinese military flights over the preceding two weeks had drawn attention from observers.
In its Sunday briefing, Taiwan’s defense ministry said it detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday. It said 16 of those aircraft entered Taiwan’s northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone, a monitoring area used to track incoming aircraft. The ministry also said it spotted seven naval ships around the island.
The ministry’s disclosure described the latest surge as a reversal of the prior pattern. It said Taiwan had not reported any Chinese military planes that went beyond the median line and entered its air defense identification zone during the week from Feb. 27 to March 5. It said that after two aircraft were detected on March 6, the next four days had none.
Taiwan said flights resumed in small numbers between Wednesday and Friday, before the Saturday increase. The defense ministry said the increased number of aircraft came after it had reported a fall in activity earlier in the period, leaving analysts to look for explanations.
Observers said the timing coincided with the annual meeting of China’s legislature, when Taiwan has previously seen fewer Chinese flights during major events and public holidays. Still, analysts told the story’s context suggested the drop was more prominent than in past instances, and they said the legislature meeting could not be the sole reason.
Another possible factor discussed by observers was what they described as efforts to calm tensions with Washington in the lead-up to a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump. The report said the White House has said Trump would travel to China from March 31 to April 2, while Beijing has not officially confirmed that schedule.
Some observers also suggested the decline could reflect a change in China’s military training and modernization activities, including what they described as a shift to a next phase of joint training between Chinese forces. Against that backdrop, the report noted that China has vowed to seize Taiwan, by force if necessary, and that Beijing has sent warplanes and naval vessels toward the island on a near-daily basis over the years.
Taiwan’s military, the report said, had indicated that it was not changing its defense posture because of the falloff in Chinese warplane activity. It said Defense Minister Wellington Koo previously noted that China’s navy remained active in nearby waters even as military flights had fallen off.
The report placed the new round of activity in the longer context of cross-strait governance after 1949, when the Communist Party rose to power in Beijing following a civil war and the defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan. It said Taiwan later transitioned from martial law to multiparty democracy.