Sharp decline in Chinese warplane flights near Taiwan stuns analysts

Chinese warplane activity around Taiwan has dropped dramatically, with Taiwan’s air defense officials reporting only seven flights in the past two weeks—down from 92 in the same span a year earlier. The lull began after a week-long gap from Feb. 27 to March 5, during which no aircraft were detected, and continued with sporadic sightings on March 6, March 12 and March 13.

Analysts note the timing aligns with China’s annual legislative meeting, a period that historically sees fewer sorties. “That alone would not be the only or primary reason for sorties dropping to zero,” said K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research. He added that the reduction could also reflect a shift toward joint training exercises among China’s air, naval and ground forces, which might be taking place away from the strait to avoid external observation.

The drop also coincides with a planned visit to China by U.S. President Donald Trump from March 31 to April 2. While some speculate the pause is intended to ease tensions ahead of the trip, former U.S. defense official Drew Thompson, now a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, cautioned that the lack of clear intent increases risk. “You fill the void with uncertainty, and uncertainty increases risk,” Thompson said.

Taiwan’s defense minister, Wellington Koo, stressed that the island will not lower its guard despite the reduced aerial activity. He pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army’s navy remains active in adjacent waters and that a single metric—flight counts—should not dictate overall threat assessments. “We will continue to closely monitor the PLA’s movements,” Koo told reporters.

U.S. officials have reiterated American opposition to any forceful attempt to alter Taiwan’s status. While President Trump is expected to focus on economic negotiations with Beijing, Washington continues to view the Taiwan question as a core security concern, maintaining a watchful stance as the region navigates this sudden change in Chinese military behavior.