Kazakhstanis headed to the polls Sunday for a referendum on a new constitution aimed at strengthening President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power, with the changes set to alter the country’s legislature, key appointments, and political institutions. The vote comes as Kazakhstan’s economy faces public pressure, and as analysts warn that political stability could be tested again.
The constitutional proposal merges Kazakhstan’s parliament’s two chambers into a single chamber. Under the plan, the president would gain the right to appoint key government officials, with parliament’s approval, and the proposal would also restore the post of vice president.
Analysts said the constitutional overhaul could shift the balance toward Tokayev as he approaches the end of his current term. Tokayev, 72, is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029, but analysts told AP that the referendum could provide a path to reset presidential term limits. Analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that if the transition of power does not go as Tokayev would like, he would be able to argue that the adoption of the new constitution reset presidential term limits, adding that the new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.
The referendum also includes institutional changes beyond parliament. A new body, the People’s Council, would be created alongside parliament if the constitutional changes pass, with authority to initiate legislation and to initiate referendums. Analysts said the council’s members would be appointed entirely by the president, further consolidating control at the top.
The proposal would also introduce a change to the legal definition of marriage, shifting it to a union of a man and a woman. Analysts linked the inclusion of that provision to a broader legal and policy direction in Kazakhstan, describing it as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.
Tokayev has described the constitutional changes as a response to the need for rapid decision-making amid instability. He said in a forum in Astana on Thursday that the step is of exceptional importance in a period when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible.
Some analysts questioned whether the constitutional plan would address demands for political accountability. Mario Bikarski, a senior Eastern Europe and Central Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in comments to AP that “The transition to a single-chamber parliament will not necessarily strengthen democracy, especially as the proposed amendments broadly expand presidential powers.” Bikarski added that there is growing public demand for greater political accountability and justice, and that the reforms are unlikely to address those expectations.
Other analysts pointed to limited opposition structures as well as possible drivers of public frustration. Umarov said there is “There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” and that opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists have been trying to demonstrate discontent, including by calling for voters to cast ballots in particular ways. He added that inflation reached 11.7% in February and that tax increases have added to public discontent, while analysts said economic problems could trigger renewed unrest similar to 2022, when fuel price hikes sparked nationwide unrest that left dozens of protesters and police dead.
Tokayev has sought to contain that risk, with Bikarski telling AP that preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority. He said Kazakhstan is the highest-risk Central Asian country on Verisk Maplecroft’s predictive Civil Unrest Index, reflecting the increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.