Kazakhstan holds referendum on new constitution amid term-limit questions

Kazakhstan voters are casting ballots Sunday in a referendum on a new constitution that would strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power, The Associated Press reported.

The proposal would merge parliament’s two chambers into one and expand presidential authority over key government appointments, which would require parliament’s approval. It would also restore the post of vice president.

The constitutional changes, if approved, would create a new body called the People’s Council alongside parliament. AP reported that the council would be empowered to initiate legislation and initiate referendums, and that its members would be appointed entirely by the president.

AP said the constitutional overhaul was initiated by Tokayev as a second change in four years. Analysts cited by AP said the package could give Tokayev a pathway to retain power after his term ends, and they said the referendum may help reset presidential term limits.

Tokayev is currently limited to one seven-year term until 2029, according to AP’s reporting, and analysts believe he could use the referendum to reset those limits. “If the transition of power doesn’t go as Tokayev would like … then he will be able to say that with the adoption of the new Constitution, we have reset presidential term limits,” analyst Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told AP. Umarov also said, “The new constitution could provide Tokayev with a loophole for reelection to another term.”

AP reported that leaders in Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have previously used new or amended constitutions to revise statutory term limits. The referendum proposal also includes a change to marriage definitions, stipulating that marriage will be a union of a man and a woman, which analysts said was introduced as a follow-up to a law banning what authorities view as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relations.

Umarov told AP that a trend he associated with the Russian constitution has appeared in Kazakhstan’s draft as well. “What we previously saw in the Russian Constitution has migrated to the Kazakhstani one. This trend toward visible and ostentatious ‘traditionalism’ demonstrates a certain bias toward which the Kazakhstani political regime will likely drift in the future,” Umarov said.

Tokayev, who AP described as having balanced relations between Moscow and the West since sanctions were imposed on Russia, said constitutional changes are meant to address the need for quick decisions in a fast-changing environment. “This step is of exceptional importance, especially in the current period, when the geopolitical situation is unstable and challenges and threats to national security are becoming increasingly tangible,” Tokayev said at a forum in the capital, Astana, on Thursday, according to AP.

While AP reported that analysts see the constitutional changes as strengthening presidential control, they also said the vote is being held amid economic discontent. AP said inflation reached 11.7% in February and that tax increases have fueled public frustration.

Analysts cited by AP said economic problems could drive a new wave of protests similar to unrest across Kazakhstan in 2022, when hikes in fuel prices helped spark demonstrations that turned deadly. Bikarski told AP that preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a priority for Tokayev. “Preventing a repeat of the 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev,” Bikarski said. AP also reported that Bikarski described Kazakhstan as the highest-risk Central Asian country on a predictive Civil Unrest Index, citing increased incidence of industrial action, particularly in oil-producing regions.

AP said the opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in government structures, and that since the referendum was announced, it has failed or “simply hasn’t had time” to significantly shape public sentiment. “There’s no formally formed opposition in Kazakhstan,” Umarov said. “There are opposition-minded politicians and civil society activists. They’re trying to demonstrate their discontent in some way, trying to hold various protests, calling for voting in a certain way.”