Kazakhs voted Sunday in a referendum on a proposed new constitution that would consolidate President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s control of government, according to the Associated Press.
The proposal would merge the two chambers of Kazakhstan’s parliament into a single body and restore the office of vice president. It would also strengthen presidential influence over key personnel decisions by giving the president the right to appoint senior government officials subject to parliamentary approval.
Analysts who spoke to AP said the structural changes would not necessarily improve democratic governance. Mario Bikarski, a senior analyst covering Eastern Europe and Central Asia at Verisk Maplecroft, said “La transición a un Parlamento unicameral no necesariamente fortalecerá la democracia, en especial porque las enmiendas propuestas amplían de forma generalizada los poderes presidenciales,” adding that reforms were unlikely to address what he described as rising public demands for political accountability and justice.
If the constitutional changes are approved, a new body called the Council of the People would be created alongside parliament. The AP report said the council would have powers to promote laws and initiate referendums, and that its members would be appointed entirely by the president.
AP reported that Tokayev, who is 72, drove the constitutional push. Tokayev is limited to a single seven-year presidential term until 2029, and analysts said the referendum could provide a path to reset presidential term limits and help him stay in power once his current term ends.
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analyst Temur Umarov told AP that if power does not transition the way Tokayev would like, “podrá decir que, con la adopción de la nueva Constitución, hemos reiniciado los límites de mandato presidencial.” Umarov said the new constitution could give Tokayev “una laguna para reelegirse para otro mandato,” AP reported.
The referendum proposal would also alter the constitutional definition of marriage, shifting it from being the union of two people to being a union of a man and a woman. Analysts said the provision was introduced as part of a continuation of a law that prohibits what authorities describe as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relationships, according to AP.
Umarov told AP that the marriage provision fits a broader trend, saying: “Lo que antes vimos en la Constitución rusa se ha trasladado a la kazaja.” He added that a visible “tradicionalismo” suggests “un cierto sesgo” that will likely shape Kazakhstan’s political regime in the future.
Tokayev, speaking at a forum in Astana, said the constitutional step was “de excepcional importancia” amid instability and “desafíos y amenazas a la seguridad nacional” that have become more tangible, AP reported.
Analysts also pointed to political and economic pressures in the country. AP reported that inflation reached 11.7% in February and that tax increases have fed public discontent. The report said analysts warned that economic problems could trigger a new wave of protests similar to the 2022 unrest, which was sparked by fuel price increases and left dozens of protesters and police dead.
Bikarski told AP that preventing a repeat of the 2022 disturbances remains a key priority for Tokayev. He said Kazakhstan is the Central Asian country with the highest risk in Verisk Maplecroft’s Civil Unrest prediction index, reflecting an increase in labor actions—particularly in oil-producing regions, according to AP.
On the question of political opposition, Umarov said there is no formally constituted opposition in Kazakhstan and that politics with oppositional leanings and civil society activists are instead trying to demonstrate discontent through various protests and by calling on voters to support specific outcomes, AP reported. The report said analysts added that opposition had not significantly influenced public sentiment since the referendum was announced a month earlier.