Kazakhstan held a referendum Sunday on a proposed new constitution that would shift more power to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to the referendum plan described by The Associated Press. Voters were asked to approve changes that would restructure the legislature and expand presidential authority, on a day when economic pressures and limited opposition influence shaped the political backdrop.
Under the proposal, Kazakhstan would move from a two-chamber Parliament to a unicameral system. The plan also would restore the office of vice president, and it would change how senior government posts are selected by giving the president the right to name key officials subject to Parliament approval.
The constitutional overhaul would also create a new People’s Council alongside the Parliament, with members of the council designated entirely by the president. Analysts cited by AP said that design would consolidate control at the top rather than broaden political oversight.
The referendum represents the second constitutional change in about four years that was pushed by Tokayev, who analysts told AP could be preparing a pathway to keep the presidency beyond his current term structure. Tokayev, 72, is limited to a single seven-year term ending in 2029, but analysts said the referendum could be used to restart presidential term limits once that mandate expires.
In comments to AP, risk intelligence analyst Mario Bikarski said the proposed changes would not necessarily strengthen democracy, arguing that they would broadly expand presidential powers. “La transición a un Parlamento unicameral no necesariamente fortalecerá la democracia, en especial porque las enmiendas propuestas amplían de forma generalizada los poderes presidenciales”, Bikarski said.
AP reported that Temur Umarov, a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analyst, suggested Tokayev could use the constitutional transition to create room for another run. Umarov said, “Si la transición del poder no sale como a Tokayev le gustaría… entonces podrá decir que, con la adopción de la nueva Constitución, hemos reiniciado los límites de mandato presidencial”, adding that the new constitution “podría darle a Tokayev una laguna para reelegirse para otro mandato”.
Beyond the institutional shifts, the proposed constitution also addresses the definition of marriage. Under the proposal, marriage would no longer be defined as a union of two people, and it would instead be defined as a union of a man and a woman, a change AP said analysts linked to a broader legal approach that prohibits what authorities describe as “propaganda” of LGBTQ+ relationships.
Umarov told AP that the marriage provision reflected a broader trend of visible “traditionalism” moving from Russian to Kazakh politics, describing it as an indication of where the political system could go. Tokayev, speaking at a forum in Astana on Thursday, said the constitutional step was meant to enable faster decision-making in a rapidly changing world, and he linked it to current geopolitical instability.
AP also reported that the opposition in Kazakhstan is not represented in governing structures, and that in the month since the referendum was announced it has not managed—“or simply hasn’t had time”—to significantly shape public sentiment. Umarov said there is no formally constituted opposition, only politicians with opposition leanings and civil society activists trying to express discontent through various protests and calls.
The vote comes amid economic strain. AP reported that inflation reached 11.7% in February and that tax increases have contributed to public discontent. Analysts said economic problems could trigger another wave of protests similar to the national unrest in 2022, which was sparked by fuel price increases and left dozens of protesters and police dead—something Tokayev has sought to contain by consolidating power.
Bikarski said avoiding a repetition of 2022 unrest remains a key priority for Tokayev, and he pointed to Kazakhstan’s risk ranking in a civil disturbance predictive index. AP reported that Bikarski described Kazakhstan as the Central Asian country with the highest risk in the index, citing increased incidence of labor actions, particularly in oil-producing regions.
Karmanau reported from Talin, Estonia, and Morton from Thessaloniki, Greece.