Democrats warn Trump tariffs could raise 2026 costs by $2,512 per household

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Congressional Democrats are warning that President Donald Trump’s new tariff push will raise costs for American households in 2026, after the Supreme Court struck down much of his tariff plan earlier this year. In a study released Friday, lawmakers on the Joint Economic Committee said the administration’s import taxes would average $2,512 per household this year, a rise of 44% from $1,745 in tariff costs last year.

The warning comes as Trump’s administration scrambles to replace revenue the federal government lost when the Supreme Court ruled last month that the president lacked authority to levy the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The court decision left the government responsible for providing refunds expected to total around $175 billion to the importers who paid the tariffs now declared illegal, according to the report.

Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, criticized the administration for continuing without offering what she described as relief for families. “Despite a Supreme Court ruling that much of Trump’s tariff agenda is illegal, the Trump administration refuses to provide relief for families,” Hassan said, adding, “As American families continue to struggle with high costs, the President keeps choosing to institute new tariffs that will push prices even higher.”

White House spokesman Kush Desai rejected the Democrats’ estimate, calling the report “phony.” Desai said in response that “President Trump will continue using tariffs to renegotiate broken trade deals, lower drug prices, and secure trillions in investments for the American people.”

The Democrats’ analysis also said tariff costs would rise partly because tariff revenue would be collected for the full year, while Trump needed time to impose tariffs in 2025 and at times suspended them. The study assumes households would absorb 100% of the tariff cost and cites a Congressional Budget Office report concluding that importers can pass along 70% of tariff costs to consumers, while also saying that domestic producers can raise prices due to reduced competition. Taken together, the Democrats said consumers end up footing the entire U.S. tariff bill.

Beyond the household-cost estimate, the report described how the administration is expanding its trade actions under different statutory authorities. Trump last year invoked the 1977 IEEPA to impose double-digit tariffs on nearly every country, but after the Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 ruling, officials moved to new approaches. The administration has already announced a 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with an option to raise it to 15%, though those Section 122 tariffs can last only 150 days unless Congress extends them and are also being challenged in court.

A more durable alternative, as described in the report, is Section 301 of the same 1974 trade law, which authorizes tariffs and other sanctions against countries involved in “unjustifiable,” “unreasonable” or “discriminatory” trade practices. Trump previously used Section 301 in his first term against Chinese imports, and those measures withstood legal challenges, the report said.

On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced a sweeping Section 301 investigation into whether 16 U.S. trading partners, including China and the European Union, are overproducing goods and flooding the world with output that is hurting American manufacturers. Greer said in a statement that “The United States will no longer sacrifice its industrial base to other countries that may be exporting their problems with excess capacity and production to us,” adding that the probe is widely expected to end in another round of tariffs.

Trade lawyer Ryan Majerus said the administration’s turn to 301 investigations was not surprising, but he cautioned that the scope is larger than expected. “The fact that they launched 301 investigations is not surprising,” he said. “We all knew that’s what they were going to pivot to. The challenge is that this is way more sprawling than anyone expected.’’ Majerus said the investigation targets many countries and that the inquiry into whether countries have excess industrial capacity can be framed broadly.

The administration is also rolling out a Section 301 investigation into banning imported goods made with forced labor, Greer said. The report added that additional 301 investigations could cover issues such as digital services taxes, pharmaceutical drug pricing and ocean pollution, and that the administration is expected to make more use of Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows tariffs on goods deemed threats to national security after a Commerce Department investigation.

The Democrats’ warning lands amid rising pressure on consumers, including higher energy prices tied to the war in Iran and concerns about high costs ahead of November’s midterm elections. Majerus said political and affordability pressures could quickly change the outlook, adding, “If the affordability and other political issues really start to become cumbersome, that certainly can impact all this. What the world’s going to look like two months from now is going to be very different from what it is now.”