Chinese warplanes have significantly reduced flights around Taiwan in recent weeks, with a notable seven-day period from February 27 to March 5 recording no detected activity in the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone, the Associated Press reported Thursday.
The decline has intensified in the past two weeks, with only seven flights detected compared to 92 in the same period last year. While some activity resumed with three flights on Wednesday and two on Thursday, the sharp falloff has analysts and officials puzzled about Beijing’s strategic intentions.
“There are so many theories and the lack of understanding of China’s intentions is what’s disconcerting,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and former U.S. defense official. “You fill the void with uncertainty, and uncertainty increases risk.”
The drop coincided with the annual meeting of China’s legislature, a major political event where the ruling Communist Party outlines its priorities. Such flights have previously fallen during significant national occasions, but this year’s decline is far more pronounced than in the past.
Another possible factor is a desire to ease tensions with Washington ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to China from March 31 to April 2. However, Thompson noted that Trump tends to view China primarily through an economic lens rather than a security challenge.
K. Tristan Tang, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, suggested the decline might reflect a shift in China’s military training.
“The military appears to be exploring a new model for joint training between its air force and navy and possibly its ground forces,” Tang said in an email response. Such exercises would likely be conducted away from Taiwan to prevent other nations from monitoring them, potentially explaining the reduced presence.
Taiwan’s military, meanwhile, has not altered its defense posture despite the