How the Iran war plays out remains uncertain across battlefield capabilities, political decisions and global energy-market stress, with the Associated Press reporting that fighting has continued into a second week. In the account, Israel and the United States keep striking targets inside Iran while Iran carries out retaliatory attacks against Israel, U.S. military assets in the Middle East and regional neighbors.
One of the central unknowns is timing. The Associated Press said Iran’s president has said mediation was underway, without providing details, and that there is no sign of fighting ending soon after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. The article also ties the pace of escalation and duration to how Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles are managed and to how effectively countries can deflect or absorb attacks.
The Associated Press reported that Israel’s military said that in the war’s early days Iran fired barrages with dozens of missiles, but that now there are “less than 10 or 20 at a time.” Israel’s Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli army spokesperson, said Iran still has “a significant amount” of missiles, and the AP said experts believe Iran could be holding missiles in reserve—potentially hoping that interceptors run low.
The reporting also highlights that neither side has offered a clear picture of military losses. The Associated Press said Iran has not provided information about military losses, while Israel said its focus is destroying long-range missiles and the United States is focused on short-range missiles threatening the Gulf. The AP account said Israel estimates that 60% of launchers of both types have been destroyed.
Israel has also been portraying a logistics buildup as part of its sustained effort. The Associated Press reported that Israel said about 50 cargo aircraft carrying over 1,000 tons of weaponry, military equipment and munitions have landed in the past 10 days, and cited the United States and Germany as partners in an effort expected to “scale up.” The AP added that ahead of the attacks, the U.S. military built up what it described as its largest force of warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades, and that the Central Command said “there is no shortage of American military will.”
The AP account said the war’s objectives are also difficult to pin down because statements and signals vary. Iran has said it wants an end to the war, not a ceasefire. A U.S. official with knowledge of the war’s operations told the AP that Israel is not in charge of the postwar plan, and that the goal is to remove the regime so Iranians “grasp their fate,” speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The AP reported that Israel is also attacking Iranian-backed proxies, including Hezbollah.
For the United States, the Associated Press said President Donald Trump has made conflicting statements about the purpose and desired end state of the conflict. The AP reported that the war has been about Iran’s nuclear program and concern it could take a short technical step to enrich uranium to weapons grade, and also that it has been about eradicating threats from Iran’s ballistic missiles—something Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. is “well on our way” to achieving. The AP also said Trump has said he does not seek regime change, even as he prioritized taking out several layers of Iran’s top leadership and encouraged Iranians to “take over” their government. The Associated Press reported there is no sign of such a takeover, noting no strong organized opposition, evidence of high-level defections or street protests, while internet restrictions complicate what outsiders can see.
The prospect of other countries joining the fight is another open question in the AP’s reporting. The Associated Press said Saudi Arabia issued a sharp statement warning Tehran would be the “biggest loser” if it continues to attack Arab states, and that Azerbaijan threatened “retaliatory measures” after it said Iranian drones hit its territory. The article said there is big risk in joining the U.S. and Israel’s attacks and that no country has announced taking that step, while also noting that Iran has already carried out hundreds of missile and drone attacks.
Beyond direct military alignment, the Associated Press described how Iran has targeted energy and other infrastructure and how those attacks have underscored the fragility of the global economy for Gulf states. The AP cited a drone strike on a desalination plant in Bahrain as an example of the vulnerability of facilities relied upon for drinking water in the region.
On potential de-escalation and negotiations, the Associated Press described complications stemming from public threats about whoever might lead Iran after the conflict. It said Trump called the younger Khamenei “unacceptable” even before his elevation to supreme leader, and that it is not clear who would be acceptable enough to make an end to the war negotiable. The AP said negotiating the war’s end is out of reach for now, and it noted that trust could be difficult because the war—and a previous one—were launched during indirect talks between Iran and the United States.
The Associated Press also reported on oil-price volatility as a major external pressure point. It said that as Iran announced its new supreme leader, crude prices were soaring above $100 a barrel and spiked near $120 before falling Monday. The AP said the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil supply normally transits daily, is a choke point, and that cargo ships are backed up there. The article cited actions including Saudi Arabia intercepting attacks aimed at the Shaybah oil field, Bahrain’s national oil company declaring force majeure for shipments after an attack on its refinery complex, and Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates cutting oil production as storage tanks fill. It also said Israel struck depots over the weekend targeting Iran’s oil facilities.
Countries are scrambling for contingency options, the Associated Press reported. It said France, which is leading the Group of Seven nations, said it could dip into emergency stockpiles; South Korea said it will cap oil prices; and China said everyone has a responsibility “to ensure stable and smooth energy supplies.” The AP also quoted Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, saying it “would not be surprising” if oil prices briefly push above $150 as early as next week.