China’s exports accelerated sharply in the first two months of 2026 while trade with the United States weakened, according to data released by China’s customs agency on Tuesday. Overall exports rose nearly 22% in January and February compared with a year earlier, a result that outpaced economist forecasts.
The increase reflected faster shipments across multiple markets, including a nearly 28% rise in exports to the European Union and a 16% gain in shipments to Latin America. Exports to the rest of Asia, including Japan and India, also were higher.
At the same time, the data showed a clear drag from the United States. Shipments to the U.S. fell 11% in January and February, after a 30% drop in December, according to the customs figures cited by the Associated Press. That narrowing decline pointed to offsetting strength elsewhere as China’s trade patterns adjusted to tariff pressure.
Trade analysts tied part of the export lift to demand linked to artificial intelligence, particularly in the semiconductor supply chain. By value, China’s exports of semiconductors rose nearly 73% in the first two months of the year, with the AP report also citing higher prices and a global memory-chip shortage.
The customs data also showed rapid growth in other categories. China’s exports of autos rose 67% in January and February, and exports of mechanical and electrical items rose 27%, reinforcing the broader picture of a manufacturing-led export upturn.
The report placed the export gains within a wider economic and trade context. China’s exports were described as a bright spot even amid tensions with the U.S., and the AP report said China’s exports climbed 5.5% for 2025 as its trade surplus surged to nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions were described as helping offset weaker exports to the U.S. following tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on imports from many countries.
The near-term outlook was also framed around policy developments. The AP report said Trump’s planned visit to Beijing at the end of March was being closely watched for a possible extension of a trade truce reached in October, which could affect exports to the U.S. The report also noted that a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s sweeping tariffs had already led to lower tariffs for countries including China.
China’s import picture showed similar divergence by trading partner. Total imports in January and February rose nearly 20% year-on-year, up from December’s 5.7% increase, but imports from the United States fell nearly 27% from a year earlier. The report said China’s global trade surplus for January-February totaled $213.6 billion, with the monthly data grouped in that way to reduce seasonal swings around the Lunar New Year.
Beyond tariffs, the AP report pointed to broader macroeconomic pressures inside China and risk from global energy and shipping routes. It said a yearslong property sector downturn has been weighing on China’s economy and that Chinese leaders announced a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%—the lowest since 1991. It also cited uncertainty from the Middle East, including concern that an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could restrict China’s access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and impede broader commerce.
In commentary included in the report, Han Lin, China Country Director at consultancy The Asia Group, said “Energy inflation is the last thing Beijing policymakers need.” Daniel Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that if the war drags on, higher oil prices could fuel global inflation, weaken consumption abroad, and potentially reduce demand for Chinese goods overseas. The AP report also quoted Zichun Huang of Capital Economics as writing that while the early pace of export gains may not persist, exports are likely to remain robust given the decline in U.S. tariffs and strong semiconductor demand.
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