The start of 2026 has not matched President Donald Trump’s confidence that the economy would accelerate rapidly this year, according to recent U.S. economic data and market updates. The most visible early signs include a drop in jobs during February, a spike in gasoline prices after the Iran-related attacks that began Feb. 28, and a pullback in stock market levels that Trump has cited as a yardstick for his economic record.
The contrast is likely to matter politically as Trump and Republicans weigh how the economy is being perceived by voters ahead of this year’s midterms. With tariffs policy still a live issue and the Iran conflict now adding pressure to energy costs, the administration is presenting the early period as too soon to judge whether growth will strengthen later in the year.
Job market data reviewed by the Associated Press showed that Friday’s employment report indicated job losses of 92,000 in February. The figures for January and December were revised downward as well, with December swinging to a loss of 17,000 jobs. The report described a trend of weakness continuing even though the monthly data can be “rocky,” and it said the job picture worsens when excluding the health care sector.
Trump has repeatedly linked his economic message to whom he says jobs go to, including comments about jobs for people born in the U.S. The AP said the latest figures undercut that argument, pointing to an unemployment-rate increase for people born in the U.S. that climbed over the past 12 months to 4.7% from 4.4%.
Gas prices also moved in the opposite direction of Trump’s recent energy-cost argument. In a February speech in Texas just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, Trump said, “Slashing energy costs is among the most important actions we can take to bring down prices for American consumers,” and he added, “Because when you cut the cost of energy, you really cut — you just cut the cost of everything.”
But the AP reported that attacks against Iran that began Feb. 28 “crushed” that narrative for the moment. It cited AAA for the change, saying gasoline prices jumped 19% over the past month to a national average of $3.45. It also cited a Goldman Sachs analyst note warning that persistent higher oil prices could push inflation higher, from 2.4% in January to 3% by the end of the year.
As oil prices rose above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, the AP said Trump sought to frame the spike as temporary. He posted on social media: “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
Market indicators have likewise softened from earlier highs, even as Trump has highlighted stock benchmarks. At the White House on Thursday, he said: “You know, we set the all-time record in history with the Dow going to 50,000.” The AP reported that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 5% over the past month. It also noted that stocks have risen during Trump’s presidency compared with levels during the Biden administration, and that a downturn could be reversed if the Iran conflict ends and companies deliver stronger profits.
One reason for attention to the stock market is that it can reflect how investors view the economy, including differences in confidence between people who own stocks and those who do not. In February, Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, said a “sizable” increase in sentiment among people owning stocks was “fully offset” by a decline among consumers without stock holdings.
Beyond headline growth, the AP reported that productivity has increased while pay has not necessarily kept pace for workers. It said business sector labor productivity climbed 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, per the Labor Department report Thursday. However, it added that Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project, said labor’s share of income last year fell to the lowest level on record.
Trump’s broader campaign comparison to the Biden administration has focused on inflation and growth, including his characterization of the prior period. In January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he said, “Under the Biden administration, America was plagued by the nightmare of stagflation, meaning low growth and high inflation — a recipe for misery, failure and decline.” The AP said the “scoreboard” differs, describing U.S. growth at a 2.8% pace during Biden’s last year compared with 2.2% under Trump in 2025, and it said the personal consumption expenditures price index was 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.
The AP also noted that even though Trump avoided the inflation spikes that he said affected Biden, the early data has not shown stronger growth or more hiring so far. A previous version of the AP story misspelled the name of Joanne Hsu; the report corrected that spelling.