Carney calls three by-elections as Liberals seek majority in Commons

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday called special elections in three parliamentary districts, a move that could deliver his Liberal government a majority in the House of Commons. Votes in the Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale and in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne are set for April 13, according to the Associated Press. The Liberals currently hold 169 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons and need 172 to govern without opposition support.

The by-elections follow the defection of three Conservative Members of Parliament to the Liberals in recent months, bringing the party within three seats of the majority threshold that would allow it to pass legislation without backing from any opposition party.

The seat arithmetic

A majority government in Canada’s 338-seat House of Commons requires 170 seats — one more than half. For a working legislative majority, however, the Liberals need 172 seats, the AP reported, because House Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia holds one of those seats but does not vote on legislation in the ordinary course. Should the Liberals win all three April 13 contests, Scarpaleggia would still need to cast tiebreaking votes to ensure the government’s bills pass.

The Toronto-area ridings of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale are considered safe Liberal seats. Terrebonne, a Quebec riding, is considered a toss-up, the AP reported.

Terrebonne’s contested history

The Terrebonne riding carries particular procedural history. Canada’s Supreme Court recently nullified the Liberals’ one-vote win there after the Quebec-based Bloc Québécois candidate challenged the result, pointing to a supporter who said she attempted to vote by mail using a special ballot that was not counted, according to the AP. The court’s ruling vacated the original outcome, creating the vacancy that Sunday’s announcement fills.

Conservative defections

The three MPs who switched to the Liberals — Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux — crossed the floor in recent months, the AP reported. Jeneroux said Carney’s remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos influenced his decision. At the gathering, Carney condemned economic coercion by major powers against smaller countries, remarks the AP described as drawing widespread attention and upstaging U.S. President Donald Trump at the gathering.

Carney’s political position

Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister in 2025 and moved the Liberal Party toward the center, subsequently winning national elections, the AP reported. The April by-elections represent his government’s clearest near-term path to the legislative freedom a majority would provide.