NASA cleared what it described as a lingering worry about a possible moon impact in 2032, saying that asteroid 2024 YR will miss the moon by a wide margin on Dec. 22, 2032. The announcement, made Thursday by NASA, marked a reversal from earlier risk estimates for the same target date.
According to NASA, the agency’s latest calculations show there is now zero chance that the asteroid will crash into the moon. NASA said the updated trajectory puts the asteroid about 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) away from the moon during the critical close approach on Dec. 22, 2032.
NASA said the improvement came after astronomers observed the asteroid with the Webb Space Telescope in February, refining its orbit. The agency had previously predicted a 4.3% chance of a direct hit for 2032, but said the newer observations tightened the asteroid’s path enough to remove the remaining uncertainty.
NASA said scientists had already ruled out a collision with Earth at any point in the next century, but the moon had remained a possible target. The agency tied that remaining risk to uncertainty in the asteroid’s early orbit estimates after its initial discovery.
The asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered at the end of 2024, NASA said. The agency described the object as about 200 feet (60 meters) across.