Global energy markets are facing new turbulence as war around the Persian Gulf increasingly interferes with oil and natural gas shipments, driving fears of a wider energy shock for Asia and other fuel-importing regions, according to the Associated Press. The key risk point is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow corridor that moves a large portion of the world’s seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas.
The scale of the bottleneck is central to the concern. Energy consultancy Kpler estimated that about 13 million barrels of oil per day moved through the strait in 2025, which the AP report described as roughly a third of all seaborne crude. For LNG, the AP report cited U.S. Energy Information Administration data showing that more than 80% of the LNG shipped through the strait in 2024 went to Asia.
As the Iran war continues, the effects appear to be reaching into the price of benchmark crude. Since the war began, Brent crude has jumped 15% to about $84 per barrel, the highest level since July 2024, the AP report said. The United States’ response has also been tied to shipping risks: AP reported that U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. will offer risk insurance to shippers and may deploy its navy to protect vessels if needed.
Analysts and officials warned that the disruptions can cascade beyond the immediate region because tightening supplies can intensify competition among buyers. In that framework, richer nations may outbid poorer ones for scarce cargoes, leaving more vulnerable economies short of fuel—an effect the AP report said was seen during past energy shocks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Zulfikar Yurnaidi, of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ Centre for Energy, said the crisis, with the closure of the Hormuz Strait as the latest development, would not only raise oil and gas prices but also “grind global economic activity to a halt.”
For major Asian economies, the exposure is tied to how much fuel they import. China and India, both described by AP as highly exposed due to their scale, face additional pressure if oil prices stay elevated. The AP report said China is the world’s largest crude oil importer and India comes in third, and that sustained price spikes could strain transport, industry and households.
The AP report said China’s energy strategy includes alternatives to Iranian supply and access to other sources. It said China imported about 1.4 million barrels per day from Iran last year, roughly 13% of its total seaborne crude imports, and that most of those shipments were already at sea and would cover another four to five months of demand, according to Kpler estimates. China also has substantial strategic petroleum reserves, though AP reported the exact amount as a state secret. “It is therefore unlikely that China would struggle to source enough crude to power its economy or meet domestic demand,” Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, said, adding that the “real question is at what price.”
For India, AP reported a shorter cushion. It said India has enough crude reserves to last less than a month, with the next two weeks described as critical. Vibhuti Garg, an energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis in Delhi, said the situation was “very, very volatile,” warning that if the conflict drags on, it could push up fuel costs and broaden inflation.
AP also highlighted food-price risks as one of the most immediate pathways from energy costs to household impacts. The report said the main risk is higher prices for perishable foods vulnerable to supply shocks. It also said a weaker rupee and higher borrowing costs could slow the economy, according to Garg. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were described as particularly exposed because of their import dependence, even where reserve stockpiles exist.
In Japan, AP cited a January benchmark from the government’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, saying Japan imported 2.34 million barrels of crude per day, about 95% of its total imports that month. In South Korea, the AP report said South Korea relies nearly entirely on energy imports and cited a Korea International Trade Association estimate that it gets around 70% of its crude oil and 20% of its LNG from the Middle East. Taiwan, the AP report said, imports nearly all of its LNG and is still sourcing about one-third from Qatar, which halted LNG production after attacks on its facilities, while it continues efforts to reduce Middle East reliance.
Even with stockpiles, analysts said the buffer is temporary. AP reported that Grant Hauber, of IEEFA, characterized government planning as “hope for the best, prepare for the worst,” and warned that some may regret not diversifying sooner into renewables described as a “natural hedge” against disruption. The AP report said renewables provide under 10% of power in South Korea and Taiwan and about 22% in Japan, citing the International Energy Agency, and said fossil fuels dominate the energy mix in all three East Asian economies.
Beyond East Asia, AP reported that developing countries in Southeast Asia face a related risk: being outbid by wealthier buyers as supplies tighten. The report described a range of responses. In Singapore, officials warned businesses and households to brace for higher energy bills. In Manila, authorities banned non-essential travel and personal use of government cars to reduce fuel use. In Thailand, officials urged the public to save energy, with motorists lined up at filling stations as prices climbed.
The economic pressure from fuel costs can fall heavily on workers who depend on transportation for income, AP reported. It described full-time delivery riders and drivers—such as a taxi driver in Chiang Rai—whose ability to work hinges on gasoline and related expenses. “Gasoline was already expensive. This war will make the problem even worse,” Sommit Sutar, a 64-year-old taxi driver, said, according to the AP report.
In Thailand, AP said the government suspended petroleum exports to shore up domestic reserves, which it said could last up to 61 days while it ramps up natural gas production from the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar. Thailand’s reliance on spot-market LNG was described by AP as leaving it “highly exposed to price and geopolitical volatility,” and Amy Kong of the Brussels-registered research group Zero Carbon Analytics said that exposure increases vulnerability to bidding wars as overseas buyers compete for cargoes.