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China’s response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran has been marked by a mix of concern and distance, with Beijing calling for an immediate stop to fighting and a return to dialogue while largely refraining from deeper involvement. The Associated Press reported that China took several hours before issuing its first official position, saying it was “highly concerned” and urging an end to military operations.
The report said China’s next major step came the following day, when Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the strikes as unacceptable and again called for more talks. It noted that there were “no indications of direct intervention,” but said expectations of China stepping in would not be realistic given how Beijing has handled similar crises.
As in other recent conflicts, the AP report said China has condemned the use of force while remaining on the sidelines, keeping in mind its longer-term interests. Analysts cited in the report pointed to China’s core strategic focus as well as its reluctance to take roles that could draw it into direct confrontation with the United States and its allies.
China’s military posture has expanded in recent years, the report said, including drills with Iran and the establishment of a base in Djibouti in 2017. Still, analysts described China’s priorities as primarily defending interests in Asia, “from Taiwan to the South China Sea,” and said it has tended to limit military involvement far beyond its immediate periphery.
The report described China’s involvement in Middle East diplomacy as more selective, citing its role in helping broker a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. But it also said China has been cautious about broader military involvement, pointing to the experiences of Afghanistan and Iraq as cautionary examples to avoid, according to William Yang, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.
Analysts also contrasted China’s approach across other theaters, the AP report said, noting diplomatic and economic support for Russia and Venezuela while steering away from military action in Ukraine or Latin America. Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Beijing’s response has been restrained and underscored China’s limited ability to shape events once hard power is set in motion.
The AP report also tied China’s caution to its broader relationship with Washington, describing the U.S.-China relationship as more central to Chinese leaders than Iran on key fronts including trade, the economy, and Taiwan. George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group, said the downside of adding Iran to U.S.-China tensions for a Trump-Xi meeting would outweigh the upside.
The report said it is possible Beijing could postpone the Trump visit, but it presented the plan as still closely watched rather than disrupted. It also said analysts viewed energy concerns as another driver of China’s approach, given that China is the top importer of oil from Iran but has sought alternatives.
Citing Kpler data, the AP report said China imported about 1.4 million barrels a day from Iran last year, representing 13% of its total seaborne oil imports. The report said Kpler estimated that enough oil was already in transit to last another four to five months, potentially giving China’s refineries time to adjust and seek replacements, including discounted Russian oil.
Beyond crude oil shipments, the report said China is also concerned about broader Middle East energy disruptions. It described Iran’s attempts to shut down the Strait of Hormuz as a key concern and said attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities in Gulf states would also be especially troubling, adding that QatarEnergy halted LNG production Monday after its facilities were attacked.
On the question of whether China would help arm Iran, the AP report said analysts expected China to avoid sending arms for several reasons. It said any military aid would likely be limited to existing long-term defense trade arrangements rather than rapid battlefield support, and it would be constrained by Beijing’s interest in avoiding direct confrontation with the United States and its allies.
James M. Dorsey, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, was quoted in the report saying Iran’s missile program is based on Chinese technology, but he predicted China would err on the side of caution rather than sell missiles to Iran’s military. The report added that Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a researcher at the Center of Economic and Law Studies in Indonesia, said China’s tangible support—if any—would remain constrained, and that what China “wants is this to end.”