Hicks’ blunt message landed on a tense moment in California’s governor’s race, as Democratic strategists and top elected Democrats worry that the state’s top-two primary system could produce two Republicans on the November ballot. In a statement Tuesday, Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks warned that an “election quirk” could allow Democratic candidates to split the primary vote and leave only two GOP candidates advancing.
Hicks said the risk is not just losing the governorship for the first time in 16 years, but also broader damage to Democrats’ political prospects. He argued that if Democrats do not have a candidate at the top of the ticket in November, the party’s effort to regain control of the U.S. House could be undermined while it seeks to blunt President Donald Trump’s agenda.
Hicks acknowledged that his suggestion could be “overly harsh” and said it may be hard to contemplate. He did not name the targets of the warning, but the statement was widely interpreted as aimed at candidates polling in single digits, including several non-white Democrats.
Among those who rejected the pressure was state schools superintendent Tony Thurmond, a Black candidate in the race. In a video posted to the social platform X, Thurmond said the party was “essentially telling every candidate of color … to drop out,” and he vowed to stay in the contest. Another candidate, former state controller Betty Yee, did not directly reference Hicks’ statement and instead announced Tuesday that she would file paperwork to formally set her candidacy in motion.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan also pushed back, with his campaign saying “voters choose the next governor, not political gatekeepers.” The reaction underscored that Hicks’ intervention has not translated into a quick consolidation behind any single Democratic contender, even as the party leadership argues vote division could change the matchup heading into November.
Hicks’ intervention follows weeks of growing Democratic anxiety about what is at stake in the top-two system. The system places all candidates on one ballot and sends only the top two vote-getters—regardless of party—to the November election, a structure that can yield an all-GOP general election even in a state where Democrats have dominated statewide politics for years.
In this race, leading Republican candidates include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both described in the reporting as supporters of Trump. The governor’s race is also notable for the size and breadth of the Democratic field, after voters had last seen a governor’s contest without a clear frontrunner, a dynamic that has brought in a “flood” of Democrats since the state’s “top two” primary was adopted more than a decade ago.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has not endorsed a candidate, echoed Hicks’ core concern while signaling sympathy for why the chair made the remarks. Newsom said of Hicks’ letter, “I’ll be candid with you. My first reaction is: I get why he sent it. There is some concern,” according to the report.
The warning also set off infighting among Democrats themselves. The reporting described at least one example of the pressure game playing out within the Latino community, where Villaraigosa’s campaign urged Xavier Becerra to drop out to reduce the chance of a GOP sweep, and both campaigns are said to be competing for support in that community.
Democratic strategists have been using polling and simulations to estimate the risk of Republicans capturing both spots on the November ballot. With Silicon Valley entrepreneur Jon Slavet withdrawing from the race, one strategist said the chance of an all-GOP ticket in November had reached 25%, in part because Republican support could further consolidate behind Bianco and Hilton as the field narrows.
The crowded Democratic field has been broken, the reporting said, into two groups in recent polling: a close contest among Hilton, Katie Porter, Bianco, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer, alongside a larger set of trailing candidates. Against that backdrop, Hicks argued that if Democratic candidates do not see a “viable path” to November, they should drop out—while Thurmond, Mahan and Yee signaled that they are not accepting the party’s gatekeeping premise.